Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Shrewsbury 1-0 Derby
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in League One
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Exeter 0-2 Wigan
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in League One
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in League One
We said: Derby County 3-1 Exeter City
After Derby suffered a narrow defeat to Shrewsbury on Saturday, we think the meeting with out-of-form Exeter will provide the Rams with the perfect chance to return to winning ways. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 55.29%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 21.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.83%) and 2-0 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.03%), while for a Exeter City win it was 0-1 (6.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Exeter City |
55.29% ( 0.15) | 23.25% ( -0.06) | 21.46% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 53.11% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.04% ( 0.16) | 46.96% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.79% ( 0.14) | 69.21% ( -0.14) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.16% ( 0.11) | 16.84% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 53.16% ( 0.19) | 46.84% ( -0.19) |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.86% ( 0) | 36.13% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 27.08% ( 0) | 72.92% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
Derby County 55.28%
Exeter City 21.46%
Draw 23.25%
| Derby County | Draw | Exeter City |
| 1-0 @ 10.83% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 9.66% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.84% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.97% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.6% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.55% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.11% Total : 55.28% | 1-1 @ 11.03% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.09% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.25% | 0-1 @ 6.19% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.62% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.15% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.7% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.83% Total : 21.46% |
How you voted: Derby vs Exeter
Derby County
90.0%Draw
5.0%Exeter City
5.0%20
