Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 43.82%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.05%) and 0-2 (7.46%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.