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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cheltenham Town win with a probability of 39.46%. A win for Notts County had a probability of 35.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (6.34%). The likeliest Notts County win was 0-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
Result | ||
Cheltenham Town | Draw | Notts County |
39.46% ( 0.11) | 25.22% ( 0.04) | 35.33% ( -0.15) |
Both teams to score 56.83% ( -0.17) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.21% ( -0.21) | 46.79% ( 0.21) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.95% ( -0.2) | 69.05% ( 0.2) |
Cheltenham Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.52% ( -0.04) | 23.48% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.49% ( -0.05) | 57.51% ( 0.06) |
Notts County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.27% ( -0.19) | 25.73% ( 0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.35% ( -0.25) | 60.65% ( 0.26) |
Score Analysis |
Cheltenham Town | Draw | Notts County |
1-0 @ 8.75% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 8.61% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.34% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.16% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.06% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.82% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.51% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.11% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.07% Total : 39.46% | 1-1 @ 11.88% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.04% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.84% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.28% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.21% | 0-1 @ 8.2% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 8.07% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 5.57% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.65% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.52% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.44% Total : 35.33% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 28 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 54 | 30 | 24 | 59 |
2 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 42 | 32 | 10 | 52 |
3 | Notts County | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 28 | 17 | 50 |
4 | AFC Wimbledon | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 20 | 19 | 48 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 48 |
6 | Port Vale | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 48 |
7 | Bradford CityBradford | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 47 |
8 | Salford City | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 26 | 7 | 44 |
9 | Grimsby Town | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 42 |
10 | Chesterfield | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 32 | 11 | 39 |
11 | MK Dons | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 38 |
12 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 38 |
13 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 28 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 33 | 29 | 4 | 37 |
14 | Swindon TownSwindon | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 37 |
15 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 37 | 35 | 2 | 36 |
16 | Bromley | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 35 |
17 | Gillingham | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 32 |
18 | BarrowBarrow | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 31 |
19 | Newport CountyNewport | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 30 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 25 | 41 | -16 | 30 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 29 |
22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 46 | -25 | 26 |
23 | Morecambe | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 26 | 44 | -18 | 23 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 22 | 46 | -24 | 21 |
> League Two Full Table |