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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Harrogate Town win with a probability of 42.36%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 32.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Harrogate Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.65%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-2 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Harrogate Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Harrogate Town | Draw | Newport County |
42.36% ( 0.11) | 24.7% ( 0.03) | 32.94% ( -0.14) |
Both teams to score 58.05% ( -0.15) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.05% ( -0.17) | 44.95% ( 0.18) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.7% ( -0.16) | 67.3% ( 0.17) |
Harrogate Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.73% ( -0.02) | 21.27% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.81% ( -0.03) | 54.2% ( 0.04) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.73% ( -0.17) | 26.27% ( 0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.62% ( -0.23) | 61.38% ( 0.23) |
Score Analysis |
Harrogate Town | Draw | Newport County |
2-1 @ 8.95% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.65% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 6.69% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.62% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.09% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.79% 4-0 @ 1.34% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.19% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.61% Total : 42.36% | 1-1 @ 11.56% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.98% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.59% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.7% | 1-2 @ 7.73% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.47% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 4.99% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.44% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.15% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.26% Total : 32.94% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 40 |
2 | Port Vale | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 36 |
3 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 35 |
4 | AFC Wimbledon | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 33 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 33 |
6 | Chesterfield | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 31 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 31 |
8 | MK Dons | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 30 |
9 | Gillingham | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 30 |
10 | Bradford CityBradford | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 28 |
11 | Notts County | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 28 |
12 | Salford City | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 27 |
13 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 27 |
14 | Bromley | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 24 |
15 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 24 | 23 | 1 | 23 |
16 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 20 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 23 |
17 | BarrowBarrow | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 23 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 23 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 21 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 21 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 19 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 19 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 16 |
23 | Morecambe | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 36 | -17 | 14 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 14 |
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