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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 39.72%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 32.96% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.34%) and 0-2 (7.26%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mansfield Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Newport County | Draw | Mansfield Town |
32.96% ( 0.02) | 27.32% ( -0.03) | 39.72% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 49.5% ( 0.11) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.03% ( 0.13) | 55.97% ( -0.14) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.94% ( 0.11) | 77.06% ( -0.11) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.31% ( 0.08) | 31.69% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.89% ( 0.09) | 68.11% ( -0.1) |
Mansfield Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.46% ( 0.07) | 27.54% ( -0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.94% ( 0.09) | 63.06% ( -0.09) |
Score Analysis |
Newport County | Draw | Mansfield Town |
1-0 @ 10.03% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 7.43% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.76% ( -0) 3-1 @ 2.85% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.21% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.84% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.85% Total : 32.96% | 1-1 @ 12.93% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.73% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.79% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.87% Total : 27.32% | 0-1 @ 11.25% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 8.34% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 7.26% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.58% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.12% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.01% ( 0) Other @ 1.95% Total : 39.71% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 26 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 52 | 26 | 26 | 58 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 23 | 11 | 46 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 46 |
4 | Port Vale | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 45 |
5 | AFC Wimbledon | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 44 |
6 | Notts County | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 42 | 27 | 15 | 44 |
7 | Bradford CityBradford | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 37 | 27 | 10 | 44 |
8 | Salford City | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 42 |
9 | Grimsby Town | 27 | 12 | 2 | 13 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 38 |
10 | Chesterfield | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 40 | 31 | 9 | 36 |
11 | Bromley | 26 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 35 |
12 | MK Dons | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 35 |
13 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 27 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 34 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 34 |
15 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 33 |
16 | BarrowBarrow | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 31 |
17 | Gillingham | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 31 |
18 | Swindon TownSwindon | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 31 |
19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 29 |
20 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 28 |
21 | Newport CountyNewport | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 26 |
22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 26 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 40 | -19 | 21 |
24 | Morecambe | 26 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 20 |
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