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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 61.8%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 18.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.23%) and 1-0 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.24%), while for an Accrington Stanley win it was 1-2 (4.95%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wrexham would win this match.
Result | ||
Wrexham | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
61.8% ( 0.01) | 20.12% ( 0) | 18.07% ( -0.02) |
Both teams to score 58% ( -0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.24% ( -0.05) | 37.74% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40% ( -0.05) | 59.99% ( 0.05) |
Wrexham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.23% ( -0.02) | 11.76% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.06% ( -0.03) | 36.93% ( 0.02) |
Accrington Stanley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.73% ( -0.05) | 34.26% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.03% ( -0.05) | 70.95% ( 0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Wrexham | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
2-1 @ 9.89% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.23% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.62% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.05% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.59% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.78% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.78% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.52% ( 0) 4-2 @ 2.02% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.62% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.51% Other @ 4.19% Total : 61.8% | 1-1 @ 9.24% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.3% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.03% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0) Other @ 0.21% Total : 20.12% | 1-2 @ 4.95% ( -0) 0-1 @ 4.32% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.31% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.77% ( -0) Other @ 2.84% Total : 18.07% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 52 | 23 | 29 | 58 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 26 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 46 |
3 | Port Vale | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 44 |
4 | AFC Wimbledon | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 43 |
5 | Notts County | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 26 | 15 | 43 |
6 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 36 | 30 | 6 | 43 |
7 | Salford City | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 21 | 8 | 42 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 34 | 27 | 7 | 41 |
9 | Grimsby Town | 26 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 38 |
10 | Chesterfield | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 39 | 30 | 9 | 35 |
11 | Bromley | 25 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 35 | 31 | 4 | 34 |
12 | MK Dons | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 35 | 3 | 34 |
13 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 31 |
14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 30 |
15 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 25 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 29 | 28 | 1 | 30 |
16 | Gillingham | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 30 |
17 | BarrowBarrow | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 28 |
18 | Swindon TownSwindon | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 28 |
19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 28 |
20 | Newport CountyNewport | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 26 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 25 |
22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 39 | -21 | 25 |
23 | Morecambe | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 20 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 19 | 39 | -20 | 18 |
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