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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 39.55%. A win for Wrexham had a probability of 34.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Wrexham win was 0-1 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Wrexham would win this match.
Result | ||
Sutton United | Draw | Wrexham |
39.55% ( 0.02) | 25.91% ( 0.02) | 34.54% ( -0.05) |
Both teams to score 54.32% ( -0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.03% ( -0.1) | 49.97% ( 0.1) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.05% ( -0.09) | 71.95% ( 0.09) |
Sutton United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.14% ( -0.03) | 24.86% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.53% ( -0.04) | 59.47% ( 0.05) |
Wrexham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.3% ( -0.07) | 27.71% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.73% ( -0.09) | 63.27% ( 0.1) |
Score Analysis |
Sutton United | Draw | Wrexham |
1-0 @ 9.59% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.56% 2-0 @ 6.67% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.97% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.1% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.38% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.65% Total : 39.55% | 1-1 @ 12.3% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.89% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.91% | 0-1 @ 8.84% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 7.9% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.67% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.38% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.43% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.89% Total : 34.54% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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