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Serie A
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Serie A | Gameweek 20
Jan 14, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
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AC Milan
3 - 1
Roma

Adli (11'), Giroud (56'), Hernandez (84')
Kjaer (71'), Gabbia (90')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Paredes (69' pen.)
Mancini (43'), Cristante (56'), Huijsen (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 1-2 Atalanta
Wednesday, January 10 at 8pm in Coppa Italia

Roma

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: Lazio 1-0 Roma
Wednesday, January 10 at 5pm in Coppa Italia

We said: AC Milan 2-1 Roma

 Milan could complete the double over Roma in Serie A's Sunday night kickoff, as their squad has stood up to its latest raft of absences much better than their opponents, who are also depleted and are generally less effective outside of Rome. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 49.19%. A win for Roma had a probability of 25.76% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawRoma
49.19% (-0.052 -0.05) 25.05% (0.012999999999998 0.01) 25.76% (0.041 0.04)
Both teams to score 52.4% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.69% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)50.3% (0.022999999999996 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.75% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)72.25% (0.019999999999996 0.02)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.53% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)20.47% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.06% (-0.047999999999995 -0.05)52.93% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.88% (0.021000000000001 0.02)34.11% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.19% (0.023999999999997 0.02)70.8% (-0.022999999999996 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 49.19%
    Roma 25.76%
    Draw 25.05%
AC MilanDrawRoma
1-0 @ 11.07%
2-1 @ 9.45% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-0 @ 8.79% (-0.0080000000000009 -0.01)
3-1 @ 5% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.65% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.69% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.98% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-0 @ 1.84% (-0.006 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.07% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 49.19%
1-1 @ 11.91% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.98% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.08% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 0.96%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.05%
0-1 @ 7.51% (0.011 0.01)
1-2 @ 6.41% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.04% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.3% (0.004 0)
2-3 @ 1.82% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.45% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 25.76%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Roma

AC Milan
69.8%
Draw
20.9%
Roma
9.3%
86
Head to Head
Sep 1, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 3
Roma
1-2
AC Milan
Spinazzola (90+2')
Paredes (69'), Lukaku (85')
Giroud (9' pen.), Leao (48')
Tomori (19'), Loftus-Cheek (34'), Okafor (90+7')
Tomori (61')
> Preview
Apr 29, 2023 5pm
Gameweek 32
Roma
1-1
AC Milan
Abraham (90+4')
Saelemaekers (90+7')
> Preview
Jan 8, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 17
AC Milan
2-2
Roma
Kalulu (30'), Pobega (77')
Ibanez (87'), Abraham (90+3')
> Preview
Jan 6, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 20
AC Milan
3-1
Roma
Giroud (8' pen.), Messias (17'), Leao (81')
Hernandez (44'), Krunic (56')
Abraham (40')
Abraham (7'), Zaniolo (18'), Karsdorp (44'), Mancini (84')
Karsdorp (74'), Mancini (90+3')
> Preview
Oct 31, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 11
Roma
1-2
AC Milan
El Shaarawy (90+3')
Zaniolo (7'), Karsdorp (24'), Mancini (49'), Veretout (90+7')
Ibrahimovic (26'), Kessie (57' pen.)
Ibrahimovic (27'), Hernandez (41'), Tomori (65'), Calabria (67'), Giroud (77'), Kessie (81')
Hernandez (66')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli128221991026
2Atalanta BCAtalanta1281331151625
3Fiorentina1274125101525
4Inter Milan1274126141225
5Lazio1281325141125
6Juventus126602171424
7AC Milan115332014618
8Bologna114611513218
9Udinese125161518-316
10Empoli12363910-115
11Torino124261518-314
12Roma123451417-313
13Parma122641618-212
14Hellas VeronaHellas Verona124081727-1012
15Como122461323-1010
16CagliariCagliari122461222-1010
17Genoa12246922-1310
18Lecce12237521-169
19Monza121561015-58
20VeneziaVenezia122281121-108
> Serie A Full Table


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