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Serie A
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Serie A | Gameweek 20
Jan 14, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
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AC Milan
3 - 1
Roma

Adli (11'), Giroud (56'), Hernandez (84')
Kjaer (71'), Gabbia (90')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Paredes (69' pen.)
Mancini (43'), Cristante (56'), Huijsen (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 1-2 Atalanta
Wednesday, January 10 at 8pm in Coppa Italia

Roma

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: Lazio 1-0 Roma
Wednesday, January 10 at 5pm in Coppa Italia

We said: AC Milan 2-1 Roma

 Milan could complete the double over Roma in Serie A's Sunday night kickoff, as their squad has stood up to its latest raft of absences much better than their opponents, who are also depleted and are generally less effective outside of Rome. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 49.19%. A win for Roma had a probability of 25.76% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest Roma win was 0-1 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawRoma
49.19% (-0.052 -0.05) 25.05% (0.012999999999998 0.01) 25.76% (0.041 0.04)
Both teams to score 52.4% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.69% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)50.3% (0.022999999999996 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.75% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)72.25% (0.019999999999996 0.02)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.53% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)20.47% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.06% (-0.047999999999995 -0.05)52.93% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.88% (0.021000000000001 0.02)34.11% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.19% (0.023999999999997 0.02)70.8% (-0.022999999999996 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 49.19%
    Roma 25.76%
    Draw 25.05%
AC MilanDrawRoma
1-0 @ 11.07%
2-1 @ 9.45% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-0 @ 8.79% (-0.0080000000000009 -0.01)
3-1 @ 5% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.65% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.69% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.98% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-0 @ 1.84% (-0.006 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.07% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 49.19%
1-1 @ 11.91% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.98% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.08% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 0.96%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.05%
0-1 @ 7.51% (0.011 0.01)
1-2 @ 6.41% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.04% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.3% (0.004 0)
2-3 @ 1.82% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.45% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 25.76%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Roma

AC Milan
69.8%
Draw
20.9%
Roma
9.3%
86
Head to Head
Sep 1, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 3
Roma
1-2
AC Milan
Spinazzola (90+2')
Paredes (69'), Lukaku (85')
Giroud (9' pen.), Leao (48')
Tomori (19'), Loftus-Cheek (34'), Okafor (90+7')
Tomori (61')
> Preview
Apr 29, 2023 5pm
Gameweek 32
Roma
1-1
AC Milan
Abraham (90+4')
Saelemaekers (90+7')
> Preview
Jan 8, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 17
AC Milan
2-2
Roma
Kalulu (30'), Pobega (77')
Ibanez (87'), Abraham (90+3')
> Preview
Jan 6, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 20
AC Milan
3-1
Roma
Giroud (8' pen.), Messias (17'), Leao (81')
Hernandez (44'), Krunic (56')
Abraham (40')
Abraham (7'), Zaniolo (18'), Karsdorp (44'), Mancini (84')
Karsdorp (74'), Mancini (90+3')
> Preview
Oct 31, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 11
Roma
1-2
AC Milan
El Shaarawy (90+3')
Zaniolo (7'), Karsdorp (24'), Mancini (49'), Veretout (90+7')
Ibrahimovic (26'), Kessie (57' pen.)
Ibrahimovic (27'), Hernandez (41'), Tomori (65'), Calabria (67'), Giroud (77'), Kessie (81')
Hernandez (66')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Atalanta BCAtalanta18132343202341
2Napoli18132327121541
3Inter Milan17124145153040
4Lazio1811253325835
5Fiorentina1795331151632
6Juventus18711030151532
7Bologna177732521428
8AC Milan177642617927
9Udinese187382328-524
10Roma185582424020
11Torino185581924-520
12Empoli184771721-419
13Genoa184771627-1119
14Parma184682534-918
15Como184682030-1018
16Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1860122442-1818
17Lecce1844101131-2016
18CagliariCagliari1835101631-1514
19VeneziaVenezia1834111731-1413
20Monza1817101625-910
> Serie A Full Table


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