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Serie A
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Serie A | Gameweek 3
Sep 1, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Milan logo

Roma
1 - 2
AC Milan

Spinazzola (90+2')
Paredes (69'), Lukaku (85')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Giroud (9' pen.), Leao (48')
Tomori (19'), Loftus-Cheek (34'), Okafor (90+7')
Tomori (61')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Serie A clash between Roma and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: Hellas Verona 2-1 Roma
Saturday, August 26 at 7.45pm in Serie A

AC Milan

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 4-1 Torino
Saturday, August 26 at 7.45pm in Serie A

We said: Roma 1-2 AC Milan

 Roma have found the net in 20 of their previous 21 home matches, while there have been three or more goals in nine of their last 10, and if they can get Lukaku on the pitch at any point, that will also heighten their goal threat. However, despite winning only three of their final 14 away games last season, Milan have started brilliantly and have not lost to Roma since October 2019, winning four and drawing three in the seven meetings since. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 42.55%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 29.36% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AC Milan in this match.

Result
RomaDrawAC Milan
42.55% (0.019999999999996 0.02) 28.09% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 29.36% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
Both teams to score 46% (0.012 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.24% (0.018999999999998 0.02)59.76% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
19.94% (0.013999999999999 0.01)80.06% (-0.012999999999991 -0.01)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.21% (0.019000000000005 0.02)27.78% (-0.017999999999997 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.63% (0.022999999999996 0.02)63.36% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.69%36.3% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.91%73.09% (0.0019999999999953 0)
Score Analysis
    Roma 42.54%
    AC Milan 29.36%
    Draw 28.07%
RomaDrawAC Milan
1-0 @ 12.91% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.38% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 8.27% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 3.58% (0.0029999999999997 0)
3-0 @ 3.53% (0.004 0)
3-2 @ 1.81% (0.002 0)
4-1 @ 1.15% (0.002 0)
4-0 @ 1.13% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.78%
Total : 42.54%
1-1 @ 13.08% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 10.08% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.25% (0.0019999999999998 0)
Other @ 0.67%
Total : 28.07%
0-1 @ 10.22%
1-2 @ 6.63% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-2 @ 5.18% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-3 @ 2.24%
0-3 @ 1.75% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 1.43%
Other @ 1.91%
Total : 29.36%

How you voted: Roma vs AC Milan

Roma
14.3%
Draw
16.7%
AC Milan
69.0%
203
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Saelemaekers (90+7')
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Roma
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Gameweek 20
AC Milan
3-1
Roma
Giroud (8' pen.), Messias (17'), Leao (81')
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> Preview
Oct 31, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 11
Roma
1-2
AC Milan
El Shaarawy (90+3')
Zaniolo (7'), Karsdorp (24'), Mancini (49'), Veretout (90+7')
Ibrahimovic (26'), Kessie (57' pen.)
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Hernandez (66')
> Preview
Feb 28, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 24
Roma
1-2
AC Milan
Veretout (50')
Fazio (42'), Mkhitaryan (80'), Pellegrini (89')
Kessie (42' pen.), Rebic (58')
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> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Atalanta BCAtalanta16121339172237
2Napoli16112324111335
3Inter Milan15104140152534
4Fiorentina1594228111731
5Lazio1610153023731
6Juventus16610026121428
7Bologna156722118325
8AC Milan156542416823
9Udinese166281925-620
10Empoli164751416-219
11Torino165471720-319
12Roma164481823-516
13Genoa163761324-1116
14Lecce164481027-1716
15Parma163672328-515
16Como163671828-1015
17Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1650112139-1815
18CagliariCagliari163581526-1114
19Monza161781421-710
20VeneziaVenezia1624101529-1410
> Serie A Full Table


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