We said: Roma 1-2 AC Milan
Roma have found the net in 20 of their previous 21 home matches, while there have been three or more goals in nine of their last 10, and if they can get Lukaku on the pitch at any point, that will also heighten their goal threat.
However, despite winning only three of their final 14 away games last season, Milan have started brilliantly and have not lost to Roma since October 2019, winning four and drawing three in the seven meetings since.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 42.55%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 29.36% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AC Milan in this match.
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