Serie A | Gameweek 17
Dec 23, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Roma2 - 0Napoli
We said: Roma 1-0 Napoli
Roma can heap more misery on stuttering Napoli by edging a tight contest and leapfrogging their southern rivals in the Serie A standings. Although the Scudetto holders have produced consistent results on the road, their hosts have the knack of grinding out gritty wins at Stadio Olimpico. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 42.03%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 32.56% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Napoli win was 0-1 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Roma | Draw | Napoli |
42.03% ( -0.83) | 25.41% ( 0.18) | 32.56% ( 0.65) |
| Both teams to score 55.49% ( -0.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
