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Europa League
Ajax
Europa League | Playoffs | 2nd Leg
Aug 29, 2024 at 7pm UK
Johan Cruijff Arena

Ajax
3 - 0
Jagiellonia

Fitz-Jim (43'), Taylor (64'), Brobbey (71')
Henderson (32')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Romanczuk (30')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League playoff between Ajax and Jagiellonia Bialystok, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Jagiellonia 1-4 Ajax
Thursday, August 22 at 7.45pm in Europa League

Jagiellonia Bialystok

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Katowice 3-1 Jagiellonia
Sunday, August 25 at 1.45pm in Polish Ekstraklasa

We said: Ajax 2-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok (Ajax win 6-2 on aggregate)

 Having almost ensured qualification last week, Ajax can afford to keep something in reserve ahead of Sunday's Klassieker - the first of Francesco Farioli's tenure. Even if changes are made, they should still overcome an ailing Jagiellonia side that cannot stop leaking goals and will be bereft of confidence. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 69.62%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Jagiellonia Bialystok had a probability of 13.17%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 1-0 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.85%), while for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win it was 1-2 (3.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
AjaxDrawJagiellonia Bialystok
69.62% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02) 17.21% (0.0020000000000024 0) 13.17% (0.012 0.01)
Both teams to score 56.57% (0.025999999999996 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.06% (0.015000000000001 0.02)33.94% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.2% (0.015999999999998 0.02)55.8% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
91.23% (0.0010000000000048 0)8.77% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
69.88% (0.00099999999999056 0)30.12%
Jagiellonia Bialystok Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.02% (0.027000000000001 0.03)37.98% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.25% (0.027000000000001 0.03)74.75% (-0.02600000000001 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Ajax 69.62%
    Jagiellonia Bialystok 13.17%
    Draw 17.21%
AjaxDrawJagiellonia Bialystok
2-0 @ 9.87% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.55% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-0 @ 8.11% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
3-0 @ 8% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-1 @ 7.75%
4-0 @ 4.87% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
4-1 @ 4.71%
3-2 @ 3.75% (0.0030000000000001 0)
5-0 @ 2.37% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-1 @ 2.3%
4-2 @ 2.28% (0.0020000000000002 0)
5-2 @ 1.11% (0.00099999999999989 0)
6-0 @ 0.96%
6-1 @ 0.93%
Other @ 3.06%
Total : 69.62%
1-1 @ 7.85%
2-2 @ 4.62% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-0 @ 3.33% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-3 @ 1.21% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 17.21%
1-2 @ 3.8% (0.0020000000000002 0)
0-1 @ 3.23%
0-2 @ 1.56% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.49% (0.0029999999999999 0)
1-3 @ 1.23% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.87%
Total : 13.17%

How you voted: Ajax vs Jagiellonia

Ajax
83.5%
Draw
11.0%
Jagiellonia Bialystok
5.5%
91
Head to Head
Aug 22, 2024 7.45pm
Playoffs 1st Leg
Jagiellonia
1-4
Ajax
Dieguez (5')
Dieguez (69')
Akpom (10', 61', 69'), Godts (27')
Taylor (48'), Hato (55')
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