MX23RW : Friday, January 3 00:03:55| >> :300:86500:86500:
Blackburn logo
Bristol City
Burnley logo
Cardiff City logo
Coventry City
Derby logo
Hull logo
Leeds logo
Luton Town
Middlesbrough logo
Millwall logo
Norwich logo
Oxford United
Plymouth Argyle
Portsmouth
Preston North End logo
QPR logo
Sheffield United logo
Sheffield Wednesday logo
Stoke logo
Sunderland
Swansea logo
Watford logo
West Brom logo
Championship header 2

Championship
Derby logo
Championship | Gameweek 24
Dec 29, 2024 at 5.45pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Leeds logo

Derby
0 - 1
Leeds


Harness (32')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Aaronson (79')
Ampadu (69')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Championship clash between Derby County and Leeds United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Derby 2-1 West Brom
Thursday, December 26 at 5.30pm in Championship

Leeds United

All competitions
Last Game: Stoke 0-2 Leeds
Thursday, December 26 at 8pm in Championship

We said: Derby County 2-2 Leeds United

 Derby have avoided defeat in three of their last four matches, and while they face an almighty test in their home clash against the league leaders, we think that they will do enough to hold Leeds to a draw in their final match of the calendar year. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 48.42%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 26.27% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.37%) and 0-2 (8.7%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Leeds United in this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawLeeds United
26.27% (-1.783 -1.78) 25.31% (-0.687 -0.69) 48.42% (2.47 2.47)
Both teams to score 52.04% (0.756 0.76)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49% (1.632 1.63)51% (-1.633 -1.63)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.14% (1.417 1.42)72.86% (-1.417 -1.42)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.93% (-0.551 -0.55)34.07% (0.552 0.55)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.25% (-0.598 -0.6)70.75% (0.598 0.6)
Leeds United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.92% (1.789 1.79)21.08% (-1.789 -1.79)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.11% (2.71 2.71)53.89% (-2.71 -2.71)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 26.27%
    Leeds United 48.41%
    Draw 25.3%
Derby CountyDrawLeeds United
1-0 @ 7.73% (-0.645 -0.65)
2-1 @ 6.48% (-0.274 -0.27)
2-0 @ 4.16% (-0.416 -0.42)
3-1 @ 2.33% (-0.135 -0.14)
3-2 @ 1.81% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
3-0 @ 1.49% (-0.175 -0.18)
Other @ 2.26%
Total : 26.27%
1-1 @ 12.03% (-0.33 -0.33)
0-0 @ 7.18% (-0.483 -0.48)
2-2 @ 5.05% (0.061 0.06)
3-3 @ 0.94% (0.047 0.05)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.3%
0-1 @ 11.17% (-0.13 -0.13)
1-2 @ 9.37% (0.252 0.25)
0-2 @ 8.7% (0.361 0.36)
1-3 @ 4.86% (0.378 0.38)
0-3 @ 4.52% (0.414 0.41)
2-3 @ 2.62% (0.167 0.17)
1-4 @ 1.89% (0.238 0.24)
0-4 @ 1.76% (0.244 0.24)
2-4 @ 1.02% (0.115 0.12)
Other @ 2.5%
Total : 48.41%

How you voted: Derby vs Leeds

Derby County
21.3%
Draw
21.3%
Leeds United
57.3%
75
Head to Head
Dec 7, 2024 12.30pm
Gameweek 19
Leeds
2-0
Derby
Rodon (39'), Wober (44')

Jackson (15')
> Preview
Jul 19, 2020 2pm
Gameweek 45
Derby
1-3
Leeds
> Match Report
Sep 21, 2019 12.30pm
Gameweek 8
Leeds
1-1
Derby
> Match Report
May 15, 2019 7.45pm
Semi-Finals
Leeds
2-4
Derby
> Match Report
May 11, 2019 5.15pm
Semi-Finals
Derby
0-1
Leeds
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds25157345162952
2Burnley25131023092149
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd25156434161849
4Sunderland25138438221647
5Middlesbrough25117742311140
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom25912431201139
7Blackburn RoversBlackburn2411672822639
8Watford2411493434037
9Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds2510693638-236
10Bristol City2581073230234
11Norwich CityNorwich258984136533
12Swansea CitySwansea2596102929033
13Millwall247892221129
14Coventry CityCoventry2578103335-229
15Preston North EndPreston2561182733-629
16Queens Park RangersQPR2561182733-629
17Derby CountyDerby2576123134-327
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd2476112739-1227
19Stoke CityStoke2568112432-826
20Luton TownLuton2574142642-1625
21Portsmouth2358103040-1023
22Hull City2557132233-1122
23Cardiff CityCardiff2457122439-1522
24Plymouth ArgylePlymouth2447132453-2919
> Championship Full Table


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!