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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 82.23%. A draw had a probability of 11.7% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 6.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.15%) and 4-0 (8.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.49%), while for a Heracles win it was 1-2 (1.91%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Twente | Draw | Heracles |
82.23% ( 0.41) | 11.69% ( -0.22) | 6.08% ( -0.19) |
Both teams to score 47.42% ( -0.27) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
69.9% ( 0.29) | 30.09% ( -0.29) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
48.69% ( 0.35) | 51.3% ( -0.34) |
FC Twente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.57% ( 0.13) | 5.42% ( -0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
78.76% ( 0.37) | 21.23% ( -0.37) |
Heracles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.14% ( -0.35) | 49.85% ( 0.35) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.44% ( -0.25) | 84.55% ( 0.25) |
Score Analysis |
FC Twente | Draw | Heracles |
2-0 @ 11.48% 3-0 @ 11.15% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 8.13% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 7.99% ( -0.08) 1-0 @ 7.88% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 7.77% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 5.66% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 4.74% ( 0.11) 5-1 @ 3.3% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.7% ( -0.03) 6-0 @ 2.3% ( 0.07) 4-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.01) 6-1 @ 1.6% ( 0.04) 5-2 @ 1.15% ( 0) 7-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.46% Total : 82.23% | 1-1 @ 5.49% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 2.7% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.71% Total : 11.69% | 1-2 @ 1.91% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 1.88% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.28% Total : 6.08% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
3 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
4 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 25 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
8 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
9 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
13 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Heracles | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 |
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