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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 82.23%. A draw had a probability of 11.7% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 6.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.15%) and 4-0 (8.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.49%), while for a Heracles win it was 1-2 (1.91%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Twente | Draw | Heracles |
82.23% ( 0.41) | 11.69% ( -0.22) | 6.08% ( -0.19) |
Both teams to score 47.42% ( -0.27) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
69.9% ( 0.29) | 30.09% ( -0.29) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
48.69% ( 0.35) | 51.3% ( -0.34) |
FC Twente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.57% ( 0.13) | 5.42% ( -0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
78.76% ( 0.37) | 21.23% ( -0.37) |
Heracles Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
50.14% ( -0.35) | 49.85% ( 0.35) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
15.44% ( -0.25) | 84.55% ( 0.25) |
Score Analysis |
FC Twente | Draw | Heracles |
2-0 @ 11.48% 3-0 @ 11.15% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 8.13% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 7.99% ( -0.08) 1-0 @ 7.88% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 7.77% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 5.66% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 4.74% ( 0.11) 5-1 @ 3.3% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.7% ( -0.03) 6-0 @ 2.3% ( 0.07) 4-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.01) 6-1 @ 1.6% ( 0.04) 5-2 @ 1.15% ( 0) 7-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.46% Total : 82.23% | 1-1 @ 5.49% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 2.7% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.71% Total : 11.69% | 1-2 @ 1.91% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 1.88% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.28% Total : 6.08% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 68 | 23 | 45 | 50 |
2 | Ajax | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 43 | 18 | 25 | 48 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 36 | 21 | 15 | 37 |
5 | Feyenoord | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 43 | 26 | 17 | 36 |
6 | FC Twente | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 41 | 27 | 14 | 35 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 32 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 38 | -9 | 26 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 26 |
10 | Heerenveen | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 25 |
11 | NECNijmegen | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 24 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 24 |
13 | Willem II | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 23 |
14 | Heracles | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 21 |
15 | Groningen | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 21 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 20 |
17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 26 | 45 | -19 | 14 |
18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 20 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 43 | -32 | 10 |
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