We said: Gibraltar 1-0 Liechtenstein
Neither side possess much quality, especially in attacking areas, but Gibraltar are fancied to take the win and move level on points with San Marino, strengthening their chances of returning to the third tier.
Liechtenstein's defeat in Serravalle has almost put them out of contention already, with only four matches in the group, and a huge chance missed to claim three points, as this should be an even tougher assignment.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liechtenstein win with a probability of 43.66%. A win for Gibraltar had a probability of 29.88% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liechtenstein win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.87%) and 0-2 (7.93%). The likeliest Gibraltar win was 1-0 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.