We said: Fiorentina 2-1 Pafos FC
Having slipped up against one Cypriot team, Fiorentina should now dispatch another, though it may not be a straightforward process.
Given their performances this season, Pafos are on the rise, but the vibrant Viola are well-equipped to inflict a rare defeat.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 60.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Pafos FC had a probability of 18.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.98%), while for a Pafos FC win it was 0-1 (5%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.