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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 48.26%. A win for Watford had a probability of 27.89% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.98%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest Watford win was 1-2 (6.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
Result | ||
Middlesbrough | Draw | Watford |
48.26% ( -1.45) | 23.85% ( 0.43) | 27.89% ( 1.03) |
Both teams to score 58.12% ( -0.6) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.39% ( -1.18) | 43.6% ( 1.18) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34% ( -1.17) | 65.99% ( 1.17) |
Middlesbrough Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.79% ( -1.01) | 18.21% ( 1.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.77% ( -1.75) | 49.22% ( 1.74) |
Watford Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.06% ( 0.13) | 28.94% ( -0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.18% ( 0.17) | 64.82% ( -0.17) |
Score Analysis |
Middlesbrough | Draw | Watford |
2-1 @ 9.48% ( -0.09) 1-0 @ 8.98% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 7.64% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 5.38% ( -0.23) 3-0 @ 4.34% ( -0.21) 3-2 @ 3.34% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 2.29% ( -0.18) 4-0 @ 1.85% ( -0.15) 4-2 @ 1.42% ( -0.11) Other @ 3.55% Total : 48.26% | 1-1 @ 11.12% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.27% ( 0.27) 3-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.84% | 1-2 @ 6.9% ( 0.18) 0-1 @ 6.53% ( 0.36) 0-2 @ 4.05% ( 0.24) 1-3 @ 2.85% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.67% ( 0.1) Other @ 3.45% Total : 27.89% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 48 | 19 | 29 | 53 |
2 | Burnley | 26 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 31 | 9 | 22 | 52 |
3 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 36 | 17 | 19 | 52 |
4 | Sunderland | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 39 | 22 | 17 | 50 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 43 | 32 | 11 | 41 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 26 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 40 |
7 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 39 |
8 | Bristol City | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 37 |
9 | Watford | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 37 |
10 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 37 |
11 | Norwich CityNorwich | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 43 | 37 | 6 | 36 |
12 | Swansea CitySwansea | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 34 |
13 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 32 |
14 | Millwall | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 24 | 23 | 1 | 30 |
15 | Preston North EndPreston | 26 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 30 |
16 | Coventry CityCoventry | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 29 |
17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 28 |
18 | Derby CountyDerby | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 27 |
19 | Stoke CityStoke | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 27 |
20 | Luton TownLuton | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 27 | 44 | -17 | 25 |
21 | Portsmouth | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 23 |
22 | Hull City | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 23 |
23 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 25 | 40 | -15 | 23 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 25 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 53 | -29 | 20 |
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