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Napoli logo
Supercoppa Italiana | Semi-Finals
Jan 18, 2024 at 7pm UK
KSU Soccer Stadium
Fiorentina logo

Napoli
3 - 0
Fiorentina

Simeone (22'), Zerbin (84', 86')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Biraghi (51')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Supercoppa Italiana clash between Napoli and Fiorentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Napoli

All competitions
Last Game: Napoli 2-1 Salernitana
Saturday, January 13 at 2pm in Serie A

Fiorentina

All competitions
Last Game: Fiorentina 2-2 Udinese
Sunday, January 14 at 5pm in Serie A

We said: Napoli 1-2 Fiorentina (after extra time)

 It may take more than 90 minutes to separate two well-matched sides, with neither having started the year sharply. Although Fiorentina do not tend to travel too well, their recent pedigree in knockout competition is notable, while Napoli are missing key players and clearly lack last year's cohesion. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 48.59%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 27.21% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (6.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.

Result
NapoliDrawFiorentina
48.59% (2.143 2.14) 24.2% (-0.164 -0.16) 27.21% (-1.983 -1.98)
Both teams to score 56.39% (-0.926 -0.93)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.36% (-0.552 -0.55)45.64% (0.549 0.55)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.03% (-0.528 -0.53)67.96% (0.52500000000001 0.53)
Napoli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.13% (0.658 0.66)18.87% (-0.661 -0.66)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.66% (1.088 1.09)50.34% (-1.091 -1.09)
Fiorentina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.5% (-1.721 -1.72)30.49% (1.717 1.72)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.29% (-2.092 -2.09)66.71% (2.089 2.09)
Score Analysis
    Napoli 48.59%
    Fiorentina 27.21%
    Draw 24.2%
NapoliDrawFiorentina
1-0 @ 9.6% (0.417 0.42)
2-1 @ 9.5% (0.166 0.17)
2-0 @ 8% (0.505 0.51)
3-1 @ 5.28% (0.2 0.2)
3-0 @ 4.45% (0.367 0.37)
3-2 @ 3.14% (-0.029 -0.03)
4-1 @ 2.2% (0.127 0.13)
4-0 @ 1.85% (0.188 0.19)
4-2 @ 1.31% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 3.26%
Total : 48.59%
1-1 @ 11.39% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
0-0 @ 5.75% (0.134 0.13)
2-2 @ 5.64% (-0.172 -0.17)
3-3 @ 1.24% (-0.072 -0.07)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 24.2%
0-1 @ 6.83% (-0.167 -0.17)
1-2 @ 6.77% (-0.353 -0.35)
0-2 @ 4.06% (-0.302 -0.3)
1-3 @ 2.68% (-0.278 -0.28)
2-3 @ 2.23% (-0.181 -0.18)
0-3 @ 1.61% (-0.204 -0.2)
Other @ 3.03%
Total : 27.21%

How you voted: Napoli vs Fiorentina

Napoli
36.2%
Draw
21.6%
Fiorentina
42.2%
116
Head to Head
Oct 8, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 8
Napoli
1-3
Fiorentina
Osimhen (45+5' pen.)
Simeone (90+1'), Cajuste (90+5')
Brekalo (7'), Bonaventura (63'), Gonzalez (90+3')
Terracciano (45+4'), Martinez (69'), Bonaventura (70'), Ranieri (89')
> Preview
May 7, 2023 5pm
Gameweek 34
Napoli
1-0
Fiorentina
Osimhen (74' pen.)
> Preview
Aug 28, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 3
Fiorentina
0-0
Napoli
Martinez (60'), Jovic (68')
Zambo Anguissa (3'), Spalletti (19'), Raspadori (90'), Ndombele (90+3')
> Preview
Apr 10, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 32
Napoli
2-3
Fiorentina
Mertens (58'), Osimhen (84')
Gonzalez (29'), Ikone (66'), Cabral (72')
Milenkovic (11'), Cabral (73'), Ikone (88')
> Preview
Jan 13, 2022 5pm
Final
Napoli
2-5
Fiorentina
Mertens (44'), Petagna (90+5')
Rrahmani (56'), Fabian (77'), Tuanzebe (85')
Lozano (84'), Fabian (90+3')
Vlahovic (41'), Biraghi (57'), Venuti (105+1'), Piatek (108'), Maleh (119')
Duncan (23'), Castrovilli (59')
Dragowski (45+2')
> Preview
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