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League One
Northampton Town
League One | Gameweek 40
Mar 23, 2024 at 3pm UK
Sixfields Stadium
Derby logo

Northampton
1 - 0
Derby

Hoskins (23')
Pinnock (14'), Brady (15'), Leonard (66')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Sibley (45'), Cashin (50')
Bradley (90+10')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Northampton Town and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Northampton Town

All competitions
Last Game: Wycombe 2-0 Northampton
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Derby 1-0 Bolton
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in League One

We said: Northampton Town 1-3 Derby County

 Derby travel to Sixfields off the back of a fine run of form, and we think that the promotion-chasing side will prove too strong for a Northampton team that will be low on confidence following a poor spell of results. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 60.03%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 16.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.92%) and 1-2 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.91%), while for a Northampton Town win it was 1-0 (6.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.

Result
Northampton TownDrawDerby County
16.81% (0.045000000000002 0.05) 23.16%60.03% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)
Both teams to score 45.68% (0.085000000000001 0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.13% (0.071000000000005 0.07)52.86% (-0.064999999999998 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.52% (0.061 0.06)74.48% (-0.055000000000007 -0.06)
Northampton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.22% (0.098999999999997 0.1)44.77% (-0.093000000000004 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.25% (0.079999999999998 0.08)80.75% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.72% (0.013000000000005 0.01)17.27% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.39% (0.018000000000001 0.02)47.61% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Northampton Town 16.81%
    Derby County 60.03%
    Draw 23.15%
Northampton TownDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 6.22%
2-1 @ 4.39% (0.013 0.01)
2-0 @ 2.5% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-1 @ 1.18% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.03% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 1.51%
Total : 16.81%
1-1 @ 10.91%
0-0 @ 7.73% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 3.85% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 0.66%
Total : 23.15%
0-1 @ 13.58% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
0-2 @ 11.92% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-2 @ 9.58% (0.004999999999999 0)
0-3 @ 6.98% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-3 @ 5.61% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-4 @ 3.06% (-0.004 -0)
1-4 @ 2.46% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 2.25% (0.008 0.01)
0-5 @ 1.08% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-4 @ 0.99% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.51%
Total : 60.03%

How you voted: Northampton vs Derby

Northampton Town
7.0%
Draw
5.3%
Derby County
87.7%
57
Head to Head
Oct 31, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 7
Derby
4-0
Northampton
Bird (14', 32'), Washington (22'), Mendez-Laing (49')
Washington (57')

Brough (2'), Odimayo (71')
> Preview
Feb 4, 2020 7.45pm
Fourth Round
Derby
4-2
Northampton
Wisdom (28'), Holmes (35'), Marriott (51'), Rooney (77' pen.)
Adams (47'), Hoskins (84' pen.)
Watson (55')
> Match Report
Jan 24, 2020 8pm
Fourth Round
Northampton
0-0
Derby
Watson (93')
Bogle (81')
> Match Report
Jul 25, 2017 7.45pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Northampton
1-0
Derby
Richards (18')
Jul 18, 2015 2pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Northampton
0-1
Derby
Russell (32')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe14102232161632
2Birmingham CityBirmingham1393124121230
3Wrexham1484222101228
4Barnsley147432318525
5Lincoln CityLincoln147432117425
6Stockport CountyStockport156632517824
7Mansfield TownMansfield137332015524
8Huddersfield TownHuddersfield147252114723
9Reading147252221123
10Bolton WanderersBolton147252224-223
11Exeter CityExeter137151410422
12Peterborough UnitedPeterborough156363127421
13Charlton AthleticCharlton145451515019
14Stevenage155371116-518
15Rotherham UnitedRotherham154561418-417
16Bristol Rovers145271621-517
17Northampton TownNorthampton144461821-316
18Blackpool144462128-716
19Wigan AthleticWigan143561212014
20Leyton Orient144281418-414
21Crawley TownCrawley153391427-1312
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge133191223-1110
23Burton Albion141581525-108
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1522111327-148
> League One Full Table


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