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League One
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League One | Gameweek 38
Mar 12, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Reading logo

Derby
2 - 1
Reading

Gayle (53'), Hourihane (70' pen.)
Cashin (47'), Adams (57'), Sibley (79')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Smith (56')
Bindon (10'), Yiadom (32'), Mola (49'), Pereira (69'), Wareham (90+4')
Yiadom (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Derby County and Reading, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Bristol Rovers 0-3 Derby
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in League One

Reading

All competitions
Last Game: Reading 1-2 Wycombe
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-0 Reading

 Derby would have certainly taken confidence from their last two successful outings, and we think that they will continue to build momentum by claiming all three points in Tuesday's midweek fixture against an inconsistent Reading team. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 59.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Reading had a probability of 18.85%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.16%), while for a Reading win it was 0-1 (5.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawReading
59.58% (-0.133 -0.13) 21.57% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02) 18.85% (0.145 0.15)
Both teams to score 54.4% (0.321 0.32)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.81% (0.294 0.29)43.19% (-0.29499999999999 -0.29)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.41% (0.288 0.29)65.59% (-0.291 -0.29)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.88% (0.054000000000002 0.05)14.12% (-0.055999999999999 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.24% (0.107 0.11)41.76% (-0.11 -0.11)
Reading Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.35% (0.335 0.34)36.65% (-0.337 -0.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.56% (0.33 0.33)73.44% (-0.333 -0.33)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 59.58%
    Reading 18.85%
    Draw 21.57%
Derby CountyDrawReading
1-0 @ 10.13% (-0.11 -0.11)
2-1 @ 9.95% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 9.92% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)
3-1 @ 6.5% (0.014 0.01)
3-0 @ 6.47% (-0.046 -0.05)
3-2 @ 3.26% (0.037 0.04)
4-1 @ 3.18% (0.013 0.01)
4-0 @ 3.17% (-0.016 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.6% (0.021 0.02)
5-1 @ 1.25% (0.008 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.24% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 59.58%
1-1 @ 10.16% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 5.17% (-0.068 -0.07)
2-2 @ 5% (0.046 0.05)
3-3 @ 1.09% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 21.57%
0-1 @ 5.19% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-2 @ 5.1% (0.037 0.04)
0-2 @ 2.61% (0.014 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.71% (0.027 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.67% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 18.85%

How you voted: Derby vs Reading

Derby County
84.3%
Draw
8.6%
Reading
7.1%
70
Head to Head
Jan 23, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 18
Reading
1-0
Derby
Mukairu (54')
Mbengue (73')
> Preview
Jan 3, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 26
Reading
2-2
Derby
Hoilett (37', 56')
Laurent (45')
Kazim-Richards (86'), Davies (90+1')
Davies (82'), Byrne (90+6')
> Preview
Sep 29, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 10
Derby
1-0
Reading
Forsyth (33')
Stearman (16'), Byrne (59'), Shinnie (74'), Lawrence (90+1')
> Preview
Apr 5, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 40
Reading
3-1
Derby
> Match Report
Sep 12, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 1
Derby
0-2
Reading

Shinnie (37'), Sibley (45+2'), Byrne (47')
Joao (40'), Ejaria (45+1')
Olise (64'), Richards (90+3')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham26186244182660
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe28177454292558
3Wrexham28157641241752
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield27146739231648
5Stockport CountyStockport28138743281547
6Leyton Orient27135940241644
7Bolton WanderersBolton28135104342144
8Charlton AthleticCharlton2712783426843
9Barnsley28126104139242
10Reading27125104241141
11Lincoln CityLincoln28108103433138
12Mansfield TownMansfield26114113432237
13Blackpool2791083938137
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham27107103231137
15Stevenage2610792324-137
16Wigan AthleticWigan2796122627-133
17Exeter CityExeter2895143242-1032
18Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2886144452-830
19Bristol Rovers2784152543-1828
20Northampton TownNorthampton2869132543-1827
21Burton Albion2859143044-1424
22Crawley TownCrawley2666142646-2024
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge2756162849-2121
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2755172647-2120
> League One Full Table


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