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League One
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League One | Gameweek 38
Mar 12, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Reading logo

Derby
2 - 1
Reading

Gayle (53'), Hourihane (70' pen.)
Cashin (47'), Adams (57'), Sibley (79')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Smith (56')
Bindon (10'), Yiadom (32'), Mola (49'), Pereira (69'), Wareham (90+4')
Yiadom (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Derby County and Reading, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Bristol Rovers 0-3 Derby
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in League One

Reading

All competitions
Last Game: Reading 1-2 Wycombe
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-0 Reading

 Derby would have certainly taken confidence from their last two successful outings, and we think that they will continue to build momentum by claiming all three points in Tuesday's midweek fixture against an inconsistent Reading team. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 59.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Reading had a probability of 18.85%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.16%), while for a Reading win it was 0-1 (5.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawReading
59.58% (-0.133 -0.13) 21.57% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02) 18.85% (0.145 0.15)
Both teams to score 54.4% (0.321 0.32)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.81% (0.294 0.29)43.19% (-0.29499999999999 -0.29)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.41% (0.288 0.29)65.59% (-0.291 -0.29)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.88% (0.054000000000002 0.05)14.12% (-0.055999999999999 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.24% (0.107 0.11)41.76% (-0.11 -0.11)
Reading Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.35% (0.335 0.34)36.65% (-0.337 -0.34)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.56% (0.33 0.33)73.44% (-0.333 -0.33)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 59.58%
    Reading 18.85%
    Draw 21.57%
Derby CountyDrawReading
1-0 @ 10.13% (-0.11 -0.11)
2-1 @ 9.95% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 9.92% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)
3-1 @ 6.5% (0.014 0.01)
3-0 @ 6.47% (-0.046 -0.05)
3-2 @ 3.26% (0.037 0.04)
4-1 @ 3.18% (0.013 0.01)
4-0 @ 3.17% (-0.016 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.6% (0.021 0.02)
5-1 @ 1.25% (0.008 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.24% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 59.58%
1-1 @ 10.16% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 5.17% (-0.068 -0.07)
2-2 @ 5% (0.046 0.05)
3-3 @ 1.09% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 21.57%
0-1 @ 5.19% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-2 @ 5.1% (0.037 0.04)
0-2 @ 2.61% (0.014 0.01)
1-3 @ 1.71% (0.027 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.67% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 18.85%

How you voted: Derby vs Reading

Derby County
84.3%
Draw
8.6%
Reading
7.1%
70
Head to Head
Jan 23, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 18
Reading
1-0
Derby
Mukairu (54')
Mbengue (73')
> Preview
Jan 3, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 26
Reading
2-2
Derby
Hoilett (37', 56')
Laurent (45')
Kazim-Richards (86'), Davies (90+1')
Davies (82'), Byrne (90+6')
> Preview
Sep 29, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 10
Derby
1-0
Reading
Forsyth (33')
Stearman (16'), Byrne (59'), Shinnie (74'), Lawrence (90+1')
> Preview
Apr 5, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 40
Reading
3-1
Derby
> Match Report
Sep 12, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 1
Derby
0-2
Reading

Shinnie (37'), Sibley (45+2'), Byrne (47')
Joao (40'), Ejaria (45+1')
Olise (64'), Richards (90+3')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham24175242172556
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe26166452282454
3Wrexham26156538201851
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield25146539211848
5Barnsley2612684036442
6Stockport CountyStockport26118740281241
7Reading2512584036441
8Leyton Orient25115932221038
9Bolton WanderersBolton26115103941-238
10Charlton AthleticCharlton2510783126537
11Mansfield TownMansfield2411493228437
12Lincoln CityLincoln269892930-135
13Rotherham UnitedRotherham259792826234
14Exeter CityExeter2695122933-432
15Blackpool2571083437-331
16Stevenage248791922-331
17Wigan AthleticWigan2586112426-230
18Bristol Rovers2584132539-1428
19Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2676134247-527
20Northampton TownNorthampton2668122440-1626
21Crawley TownCrawley2456132544-1921
22Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2555152645-1920
23Burton Albion2639142340-1718
24Cambridge UnitedCambridge2546152445-2118
> League One Full Table


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