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Major League Soccer
Philadelphia Union
Major League Soccer
Oct 19, 2024 at 11pm UK
Subaru Park
FC Cincinnati

Philadelphia
1 - 2
Cincinnati

Sullivan (2')
Baribo (59'), Elliott (66'), Wagner (80')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Rodrigo Asad (45+4'), Glesnes (46' og.)
Nwobodo (64'), Rodrigo Asad (68'), Orellano (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Philadelphia Union

All competitions
Last Game: Columbus Crew 3-2 Philadelphia
Sunday, October 6 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

FC Cincinnati

All competitions
Last Game: Cincinnati 1-3 Orlando City
Sunday, October 6 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: Philadelphia Union 2-1 FC Cincinnati

 It is now or never for Philadelphia Union in their push for post-season football as they needed maximum points to keep their slim playoff qualifying hopes alive. While Philadelphia will need results elsewhere to go in their favour this weekend, they must do their part first when they go up against a Cincinnati side who have already booked a playoff ticket. While the Orange and Blue will be looking to snap their run of three back-to-back defeats and end the season on a positive note, we are backing Curtin's men to go all out in front of their home supporters to secure the desired result. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 46.4%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 30.78% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.02%) and 2-0 (6.35%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.

Result
Philadelphia UnionDrawFC Cincinnati
46.4% (0.239 0.24) 22.82% (-0.058 -0.06) 30.78% (-0.183 -0.18)
Both teams to score 63.82% (0.10899999999999 0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.05% (0.183 0.18)36.95% (-0.185 -0.18)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.86% (0.198 0.2)59.13% (-0.201 -0.2)
Philadelphia Union Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.64% (0.15900000000001 0.16)16.36% (-0.161 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.02% (0.289 0.29)45.98% (-0.291 -0.29)
FC Cincinnati Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.31% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)23.69% (0.016000000000002 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.19% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)57.81% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Philadelphia Union 46.4%
    FC Cincinnati 30.78%
    Draw 22.82%
Philadelphia UnionDrawFC Cincinnati
2-1 @ 9.15% (0.012 0.01)
1-0 @ 7.02% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
2-0 @ 6.35% (0.012 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.52% (0.037 0.04)
3-2 @ 3.97% (0.025 0.03)
3-0 @ 3.83% (0.027 0.03)
4-1 @ 2.5% (0.031 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.8% (0.02 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.73% (0.021 0.02)
5-1 @ 0.9% (0.015 0.02)
Other @ 3.63%
Total : 46.4%
1-1 @ 10.1% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
2-2 @ 6.59% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-0 @ 3.88% (-0.035 -0.04)
3-3 @ 1.91% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 0.35%
Total : 22.82%
1-2 @ 7.28% (-0.034 -0.03)
0-1 @ 5.58% (-0.054 -0.05)
0-2 @ 4.02% (-0.040999999999999 -0.04)
1-3 @ 3.49% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-3 @ 3.16%
0-3 @ 1.93% (-0.021 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.26% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.14%
Other @ 2.92%
Total : 30.78%

How you voted: Philadelphia vs Cincinnati

Philadelphia Union
72.7%
Draw
9.1%
FC Cincinnati
18.2%
11
Head to Head
Aug 14, 2024 12.30am
Round of 16
Cincinnati
2-4
Philadelphia
Bucha (66'), Yedlin (80')
Robinson (43')
Uhre (52'), Baribo (61', 81'), Sullivan (84')
Wagner (90+2')
> Preview
Jun 20, 2024 12.45am
Cincinnati
4-3
Philadelphia
Kelsy (29'), Acosta (49' pen., 90+10'), Orellano (60')
Keller (6')
Baribo (43', 90+1'), Bueno (55')
Wagner (12'), Elliott (12'), McGlynn (81')
> Preview
Nov 26, 2023 1am
Cincinnati
1-0
Philadelphia
Mosquera (90+4')
Gaddis (30'), Boupendza (76')

Lowe (11'), Carranza (51')
> Preview
Sep 17, 2023 12.30am
Philadelphia
2-2
Cincinnati
Andres Martinez (23'), Gazdag (37' pen.)
Elliott (19'), Gazdag (21'), Lowe (42'), Carranza (63'), Wagner (74'), Baribo (85')
Elliott (90+4')
Boupendza (49'), Vazquez (76')
Miazga (18'), Celentano (35'), Mosquera (36'), Hagglund (45+4')
Mosquera (83')
> Preview
Apr 9, 2023 12.30am
Cincinnati
1-0
Philadelphia
Acosta (69' pen.)
> Preview
rhs 2.0
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