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Europa League
Qarabag
Europa League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Mar 7, 2024 at 5.45pm UK
Baki Olimpiya Stadionu
Leverkusen logo

Qarabag
2 - 2
B. Leverkusen

Benzia (26'), Juninho (45+2')
Juninho (8')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Wirtz (70'), Schick (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Qarabag FK and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Qarabag FK

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Qarabag 2-3 Braga
Thursday, February 22 at 5.45pm in Europa League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: FC Koln 0-2 B. Leverkusen
Sunday, March 3 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Qarabag FK 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen

 As they did against Braga in the playoff round, Qarabag will look to relish their underdog status against Leverkusen and require another resolute defensive performance, similar to their last home outing with Die Werkself earlier this season, if they wish to keep the tie alive heading into the second leg. However, stopping the juggernaut that is Leverkusen will be a tall order for the Azerbaijani hosts, and Alonso's side should ultimately have few problems putting themselves in a strong position to progress beyond the last 16. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 60.42%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 18.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.14%) and 0-1 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a Qarabag FK win it was 2-1 (5.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.

Result
Qarabag FKDrawBayer Leverkusen
18.96% (-0.225 -0.23) 20.62% (-0.148 -0.15) 60.42% (0.368 0.37)
Both teams to score 57.95% (0.108 0.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.38% (0.331 0.33)38.61% (-0.336 -0.34)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.08% (0.35 0.35)60.91% (-0.355 -0.36)
Qarabag FK Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.15% (-0.036999999999992 -0.04)33.84% (0.032000000000004 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.49% (-0.038 -0.04)70.51% (0.033000000000001 0.03)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.59% (0.208 0.21)12.4% (-0.212 -0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.7% (0.433 0.43)38.3% (-0.438 -0.44)
Score Analysis
    Qarabag FK 18.96%
    Bayer Leverkusen 60.42%
    Draw 20.62%
Qarabag FKDrawBayer Leverkusen
2-1 @ 5.14% (-0.049 -0.05)
1-0 @ 4.55% (-0.077 -0.08)
2-0 @ 2.46% (-0.044 -0.04)
3-2 @ 1.94% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
3-1 @ 1.86% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 3%
Total : 18.96%
1-1 @ 9.49% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)
2-2 @ 5.37% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.2% (-0.068 -0.07)
3-3 @ 1.35% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 20.62%
1-2 @ 9.91% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-2 @ 9.14% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-1 @ 8.76% (-0.068 -0.07)
1-3 @ 6.89% (0.051 0.05)
0-3 @ 6.36% (0.053 0.05)
2-3 @ 3.73% (0.024 0.02)
1-4 @ 3.6% (0.056 0.06)
0-4 @ 3.32% (0.054 0.05)
2-4 @ 1.95% (0.029 0.03)
1-5 @ 1.5% (0.035 0.03)
0-5 @ 1.39% (0.034 0.03)
Other @ 3.88%
Total : 60.42%

How you voted: Qarabag vs B. Leverkusen

Qarabag FK
10.7%
Draw
11.9%
Bayer Leverkusen
77.4%
177
Head to Head
Nov 9, 2023 5.45pm
Group Stage
Qarabag
0-1
B. Leverkusen

Medina (25'), Vesovic (35'), Gugeshashvili (90+3'), Bayramov (90+7')
Okoh Boniface (90+4' pen.)
Wirtz (68'), Xhaka (69'), Hofmann (69')
> Preview
Oct 26, 2023 8pm
Group Stage
B. Leverkusen
5-1
Qarabag
Wirtz (4'), Grimaldo (29', 54'), Okoh Boniface (35'), Tapsoba (57')
Wirtz (15'), Andrich (43')
Bayramov (16' pen.)
Andrade (19'), Romao (45+1'), Cafarquliyev (77')
> Preview
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