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Africa Cup Of Nations section header

Africa Cup of Nations
Senegal national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Oct 11, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stade Leopold Sedar Senghor
Malawi national football team

Senegal
4 - 0
Malawi

Gueye (35'), Mane (68'), Dia (71'), Jackson (77')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Njaliwa (53'), Banda (90+4')
Munthali (16')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Senegal and Malawi, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Senegal

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Burundi 0-1 Senegal
Monday, September 9 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Malawi

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Burkina Faso 3-1 Malawi
Tuesday, September 10 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Senegal 2-1 Malawi

 While Malawi put up decent performances, scoring in both previous matches in this competition, they now face a major step up in class of opponents, and we feel they will be unable to contain the star-studded Lions of Teranga in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 72.95%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 8.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.43%) and 3-0 (10.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (8.3%), while for a Malawi win it was 0-1 (4.14%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Senegal would win this match.

Result
SenegalDrawMalawi
72.95% (-0.752 -0.75) 18.82% (0.218 0.22) 8.22% (0.5331 0.53)
Both teams to score 33.9% (1.518 1.52)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.33% (0.73200000000001 0.73)54.67% (-0.734 -0.73)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24% (0.604 0.6)75.99% (-0.60600000000001 -0.61)
Senegal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.33% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)13.66% (0.00099999999999945 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.14% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)40.86% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Malawi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
39.26% (1.759 1.76)60.74% (-1.76 -1.76)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
8.98% (0.852 0.85)91.02% (-0.854 -0.85)
Score Analysis
    Senegal 72.93%
    Malawi 8.22%
    Draw 18.82%
SenegalDrawMalawi
1-0 @ 16.51% (-0.48 -0.48)
2-0 @ 16.43% (-0.48 -0.48)
3-0 @ 10.9% (-0.32 -0.32)
2-1 @ 8.2% (0.246 0.25)
3-1 @ 5.44% (0.163 0.16)
4-0 @ 5.43% (-0.158 -0.16)
4-1 @ 2.71% (0.081 0.08)
5-0 @ 2.16% (-0.063 -0.06)
3-2 @ 1.36% (0.116 0.12)
5-1 @ 1.08% (0.032 0.03)
Other @ 2.73%
Total : 72.93%
0-0 @ 8.3% (-0.239 -0.24)
1-1 @ 8.24% (0.247 0.25)
2-2 @ 2.04% (0.175 0.18)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 18.82%
0-1 @ 4.14% (0.124 0.12)
1-2 @ 2.05% (0.175 0.18)
0-2 @ 1.03% (0.089 0.09)
Other @ 1%
Total : 8.22%

How you voted: Senegal vs Malawi

Senegal
91.3%
Draw
8.7%
Malawi
0.0%
23
Head to Head
Jan 18, 2022 4pm
Group Stage
Malawi
0-0
Senegal
Chaziya (58'), Thomu (83')
Kouyate (20')
> Preview
Jul 14, 2021 11am
Group Stage
Senegal
2-1
Malawi
A (11', 90+2')
P (63'), S (76')
Muyaba (35')
Sanudi (43')
> Preview
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