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Bundesliga
Bundesliga | Gameweek 12
Nov 29, 2024 at 7.30pm UK
Millerntor-Stadion

St Pauli
3 - 1
Holstein Kiel

Saliakas (25'), Guilavogui (56'), Eggestein (85')
Smith (38'), Afolayan (86')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Harres (90+1')
Rapp (0'), Holtby (23'), Machino (23'), Ivezic (27'), Becker (38'), Erras (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between St Pauli and Holstein Kiel, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

St Pauli

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Borussia M'bach 2-0 St Pauli
Sunday, November 24 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga

Holstein Kiel

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Holstein Kiel 0-3 Mainz
Sunday, November 24 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: St Pauli 0-0 Holstein Kiel

 Neither side will want to overcommit, and this could lead to a stale and timid encounter on Friday despite the importance of the match. Additionally, St Pauli have struggled for goals while Holstein Kiel have been poor away from home, and it would not be surprising if the points were shared. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 44.98%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 31.03% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.29%) and 2-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.

Result
St PauliDrawHolstein Kiel
44.98% (-0.264 -0.26) 23.99% (0.032 0.03) 31.03% (0.232 0.23)
Both teams to score 59.71% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.58% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)42.41% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.18% (-0.038000000000004 -0.04)64.82% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
St Pauli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.93% (-0.126 -0.13)19.07% (0.126 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.33% (-0.20999999999999 -0.21)50.67% (0.211 0.21)
Holstein Kiel Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.78% (0.12599999999999 0.13)26.22% (-0.126 -0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.68% (0.169 0.17)61.32% (-0.169 -0.17)
Score Analysis
    St Pauli 44.98%
    Holstein Kiel 31.03%
    Draw 23.99%
St PauliDrawHolstein Kiel
2-1 @ 9.19% (-0.023999999999999 -0.02)
1-0 @ 8.29% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
2-0 @ 6.86% (-0.043 -0.04)
3-1 @ 5.08% (-0.033 -0.03)
3-0 @ 3.79% (-0.039 -0.04)
3-2 @ 3.4% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.1% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.57% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.41% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 3.3%
Total : 44.98%
1-1 @ 11.09% (0.02 0.02)
2-2 @ 6.15% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 5% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.52% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 23.99%
1-2 @ 7.42% (0.037000000000001 0.04)
0-1 @ 6.69% (0.036 0.04)
0-2 @ 4.48% (0.04 0.04)
1-3 @ 3.31% (0.029 0.03)
2-3 @ 2.75% (0.013 0.01)
0-3 @ 2% (0.025 0.03)
1-4 @ 1.11% (0.014 0.01)
2-4 @ 0.92% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 31.03%

How you voted: St Pauli vs Holstein Kiel

St Pauli
50.0%
Draw
37.9%
Holstein Kiel
12.1%
66
Head to Head
Feb 23, 2024 5.30pm
Gameweek 23
Holstein Kiel
3-4
St Pauli
Machino (53'), Mees (65'), Bernhardsson (82')
Schulz (45')
Afolayan (11', 36'), Hartel (34'), Metcalfe (57')
Saliakas (90+4'), Hurzeler (90+5')
Sep 17, 2023 12.30pm
Gameweek 6
St Pauli
5-1
Holstein Kiel
Metcalfe (4'), Smith (7'), Afolayan (38'), Ritzka (69'), Hartel (90+3')
Hurzeler (0'), Smith (27'), Burchert (45+2'), Saad (49')
Holtby (50')
Porath (16'), Holtby (47'), Rothe (73')
May 19, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 33
Holstein Kiel
3-4
St Pauli
Skrzybski (28' pen.), Komenda (78'), Reese (90+3')
Becker (45+2'), Rapp (46'), Bartels (65'), Pichler (90+5'), Wahl (90+9')
Afolayan (39'), Wahl (53' og.), Daschner (61'), Paqarada (74')
Hurzeler (0'), Afolayan (77')
Afolayan (87')
Nov 8, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 16
St Pauli
0-0
Holstein Kiel
Dec 17, 2021 5.30pm
Gameweek 18
Holstein Kiel
3-0
St Pauli
Bartels (8'), Porath (29'), Pichler (45+1')
Thesker (56'), Arp (90')

Ziereis (56'), Paqarada (80'), Dittgen (86'), Ole Becker (90+1')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern16123148133539
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen16105140231735
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1693436231330
4RB Leipzig169342822630
5Mainz 05Mainz1684430201028
6Freiburg168352426-227
7Stuttgart167543025526
8Borussia DortmundDortmund167453025525
9Werder Bremen167452829-125
10Wolfsburg167363328524
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach167362521424
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin164571421-717
13Augsburg164481733-1616
14St Pauli1642101220-814
15Hoffenheim163582029-914
16Heidenheim1641112033-1313
17Holstein Kiel1622122141-208
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1613121337-246
> Bundesliga Full Table


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