Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stenhousemuir win with a probability of 43.58%. A win for Dumbarton had a probability of 30.74% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stenhousemuir win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Dumbarton win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stenhousemuir would win this match.
Result | ||
Stenhousemuir | Draw | Dumbarton |
43.58% ( 0.04) | 25.68% ( -0.01) | 30.74% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 53.83% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.96% ( 0.03) | 50.04% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.98% ( 0.03) | 72.01% ( -0.03) |
Stenhousemuir Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.13% ( 0.03) | 22.87% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.39% ( 0.05) | 56.61% ( -0.05) |
Dumbarton Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.79% ( -0.01) | 30.21% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.63% ( -0.01) | 66.37% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Stenhousemuir | Draw | Dumbarton |
1-0 @ 10.19% 2-1 @ 9% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.52% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.43% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.7% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.65% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.63% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.36% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.98% ( 0) Other @ 2.12% Total : 43.58% | 1-1 @ 12.2% 0-0 @ 6.91% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.39% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.68% | 0-1 @ 8.27% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.3% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.95% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.91% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.15% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.98% ( -0) Other @ 3.18% Total : 30.74% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Arbroath | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 28 |
2 | StenhousemuirStenhousemuir | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 27 |
3 | Alloa AthleticAlloa | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 25 |
4 | Kelty Hearts | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 23 |
5 | Montrose | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 23 |
6 | Cove Rangers | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 24 | 23 | 1 | 22 |
7 | Queen of the SouthQotS | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
8 | Annan AthleticAnnan | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 18 |
9 | Inverness Caledonian ThistleInverness | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 7 |
10 | Dumbarton | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 1 |
> Scottish League One Full Table |