We said: Wycombe Wanderers 1-3 Aston Villa
As Aston Villa have other priorities - and are likely to field an unfamiliar team - Wycombe could pose a threat to their Premier League opponents for a while, before succumbing to defeat by the final whistle.
Villa's squad does not run too deep, but it contains some promising players, so they should eventually grind out a win and reach the third round.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 42.2%. A win for Wycombe Wanderers had a probability of 33.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.3%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest Wycombe Wanderers win was 2-1 (7.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Aston Villa in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Aston Villa.