Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 39.57%. A win for Queretaro had a probability of 34.85% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (6.53%). The likeliest Queretaro win was 0-1 (8.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.