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Ligue 1
Lille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 19
Jan 15, 2023 at 12pm UK
Stade Lille-Metropole
Troyes

Lille
5 - 1
Troyes

Bayo (16', 47'), David (45+2', 88'), Virginius (75')
Balepa (23')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Balde (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Lille and Troyes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lille

All competitions
Last Game: Brest 0-0 Lille
Wednesday, January 11 at 6pm in Ligue 1

Troyes

All competitions
Last Game: Troyes 0-2 Marseille
Wednesday, January 11 at 8pm in Ligue 1

We said: Lille 2-1 Troyes

 Despite the difference in league positions, Lille have netted just one more goal than their opponents this season, something which may indicate that a close match could materialise. Nevertheless, we are still backing the home side to edge this game, potentially by the odd goal in three courtesy of their superior defensive record. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 68.01%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 13.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.86%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.99%), while for a Troyes win it was 0-1 (4.15%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.

Result
LilleDrawTroyes
68.01% (-0.801 -0.8) 18.93% (0.424 0.42) 13.06% (0.378 0.38)
Both teams to score 49.83% (-0.33 -0.33)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.5% (-1.022 -1.02)42.5% (1.021 1.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.1% (-1.026 -1.03)64.9% (1.026 1.03)
Lille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.52% (-0.5 -0.5)11.48% (0.499 0.5)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.67% (-1.091 -1.09)36.33% (1.091 1.09)
Troyes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.29% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)43.71% (0.055 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.12% (-0.046000000000003 -0.05)79.88% (0.046000000000006 0.05)
Score Analysis
    Lille 68%
    Troyes 13.06%
    Draw 18.93%
LilleDrawTroyes
2-0 @ 11.75% (0.06 0.06)
1-0 @ 10.86% (0.28 0.28)
2-1 @ 9.73% (0.034999999999998 0.03)
3-0 @ 8.48% (-0.131 -0.13)
3-1 @ 7.02% (-0.119 -0.12)
4-0 @ 4.59% (-0.167 -0.17)
4-1 @ 3.8% (-0.144 -0.14)
3-2 @ 2.91% (-0.054 -0.05)
5-0 @ 1.99% (-0.114 -0.11)
5-1 @ 1.64% (-0.098 -0.1)
4-2 @ 1.57% (-0.062 -0.06)
Other @ 3.67%
Total : 68%
1-1 @ 8.99% (0.212 0.21)
0-0 @ 5.02% (0.225 0.23)
2-2 @ 4.03% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 0.9%
Total : 18.93%
0-1 @ 4.15% (0.18 0.18)
1-2 @ 3.72% (0.082 0.08)
0-2 @ 1.72% (0.072 0.07)
2-3 @ 1.11% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-3 @ 1.03% (0.021 0.02)
Other @ 1.33%
Total : 13.06%

How you voted: Lille vs Troyes

Lille
76.9%
Draw
19.2%
Troyes
3.8%
26
Head to Head
May 1, 2022 12pm
Troyes
3-0
Lille
Tardieu (43' pen., 86' pen.), Ugbo (55' pen.)

Sanches (50'), Botman (54'), Gudmundsson (61')
Sanches (50'), Yilmaz (68')
Dec 4, 2021 6pm
Lille
2-1
Troyes
David (48'), Giraudon (85' og.)
Xeka (41'), Yilmaz (66'), Onana (88')
Dingome (6')
Kouame (22'), Giraudon (33'), Salmier (33'), Dingome (59')
Jan 20, 2018 7pm
Troyes
1-0
Lille
Niane (44')

Benzia (45'), Araujo (77')
Oct 14, 2017 7pm
Lille
2-2
Troyes
Araujo (12'), Mendes (74')
Pepe (66')
Amadou (90')
Darbion (3'), Niane (90' pen.)
Dingome (50'), Traore (69')
Jan 23, 2016 7pm
Lille
1-3
Troyes
Boufal (25' pen.)
Bautheac (36'), Boufal (43')
Cabot (77', 80'), Pi (86')
Camus (25')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG17134046153143
2Marseille17113339201936
3MonacoMonaco1794428181031
4Nice1786335231230
5Lille1778226161029
6Lyon178452922728
7Lens177642116527
8Toulouse177371919024
9StrasbourgStrasbourg176563029123
10Auxerre176472426-222
11Brest177192630-422
12Reims175572325-220
13Angers175481927-819
14Rennes1752102325-217
15NantesNantes173772027-716
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1751111637-2116
17Le HavreLe Havre1740131336-2312
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1723121642-269
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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