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Ligue 1
Toulouse
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 24
Feb 19, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stadium Municipal
Marseille

Toulouse
2 - 3
Marseille

Dallinga (3'), Onaiwu (87')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Mbemba (52'), Under (59'), Tavares (78')
Under (54'), Kolasinac (76')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Toulouse and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toulouse

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Toulouse 3-1 Rennes
Sunday, February 12 at 12pm in Ligue 1

Marseille

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Clermont 0-2 Marseille
Saturday, February 11 at 8.45pm in Ligue 1

We said: Toulouse 0-2 Marseille

 We should see a different-looking Toulouse side who seem to have settled down nicely since some shaky performances at the end of 2022. However, the depth of Marseille and their ability to remain calm and organised when pressed at the back can frustrate opposing teams, while they have plenty of dependable players in attack who can get the job done. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 57.5%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Toulouse had a probability of 20.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.92%) and 0-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for a Toulouse win it was 1-0 (5.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
ToulouseDrawMarseille
20.16% (0.165 0.17) 22.33% (0.11 0.11) 57.5% (-0.272 -0.27)
Both teams to score 54.12% (-0.083999999999996 -0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.34% (-0.247 -0.25)44.65% (0.25 0.25)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.98% (-0.239 -0.24)67.02% (0.242 0.24)
Toulouse Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.88% (0.033999999999999 0.03)36.12% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.09% (0.029 0.03)72.9% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.73% (-0.173 -0.17)15.27% (0.175 0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.03% (-0.327 -0.33)43.97% (0.33 0.33)
Score Analysis
    Toulouse 20.16%
    Marseille 57.5%
    Draw 22.33%
ToulouseDrawMarseille
1-0 @ 5.62% (0.065 0.07)
2-1 @ 5.37% (0.032999999999999 0.03)
2-0 @ 2.86% (0.035 0.03)
3-1 @ 1.82% (0.012 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.71% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 0.97% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 1.8%
Total : 20.16%
1-1 @ 10.55% (0.06 0.06)
0-0 @ 5.52% (0.059 0.06)
2-2 @ 5.05% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-3 @ 1.07% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 22.33%
0-1 @ 10.36% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
1-2 @ 9.92% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)
0-2 @ 9.74% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
1-3 @ 6.21% (-0.042 -0.04)
0-3 @ 6.1% (-0.047 -0.05)
2-3 @ 3.16% (-0.019 -0.02)
1-4 @ 2.92% (-0.038 -0.04)
0-4 @ 2.87% (-0.04 -0.04)
2-4 @ 1.49% (-0.018 -0.02)
1-5 @ 1.1% (-0.021 -0.02)
0-5 @ 1.08% (-0.022 -0.02)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 57.5%

How you voted: Toulouse vs Marseille

Toulouse
7.5%
Draw
9.7%
Marseille
82.8%
93
Head to Head
Dec 29, 2022 8pm
Marseille
6-1
Toulouse
Rongier (13'), Nicolaisen (41' og.), Kolasinac (51'), Payet (61'), Under (80' pen.), Tavares (82')
Clauss (65')
Van den Boomen (66' pen.)
Feb 8, 2020 4.30pm
Marseille
1-0
Toulouse
Payet (51')
Gonzalez (15')

Makengo (61'), Sylla (71')
Nov 24, 2019 8pm
Toulouse
0-2
Marseille

Sangare (32'), Isimat-Mirin (63'), Amian (86')
Moreira (41')
Benedetto (76'), Radonjic (79')
Strootman (70'), Radonjic (80'), Kamara (82')
May 18, 2019 8pm
Toulouse
2-5
Marseille
Leya Iseka (26'), Gradel (61')
Jullien (22')
Sanson (29'), Sakai (50'), N'Jie (76'), Thauvin (90')
Amavi (39'), Rami (59')
Aug 10, 2018 7.45pm
Marseille
4-0
Toulouse
Payet (45' pen., 62'), Germain (89'), Thauvin (90')
Amavi (46')

Jullien (11'), Amian (44'), Sangare (55')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CParis Saint-GermainPSG342210281334876
2MonacoMonaco34207768422667
3Brest341710753341961
4Lille341611752341859
5Nice341510940291155
6Lyon34165134955-653
7Lens34149114537851
8Marseille3413111052411150
9Reims34138134247-547
10Rennes341210125346746
11Toulouse341110134246-443
12Montpellier HSCMontpellier341012124348-541
13StrasbourgStrasbourg34109153850-1239
14NantesNantes3496193055-2533
15Le HavreLe Havre34711163445-1132
16Metz3485213558-2329
RLorient3478194366-2329
RClermont34510192660-3425
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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