Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 55.86%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for CF Montreal had a probability of 21.85%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.41%), while for a CF Montreal win it was 1-2 (5.75%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.
Result | ||
Atlanta United | Draw | CF Montreal |
55.86% ( 0.72) | 22.29% ( -0.33) | 21.85% ( -0.39) |
Both teams to score 56.85% ( 0.58) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.74% ( 1.02) | 42.26% ( -1.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.33% ( 1.02) | 64.67% ( -1.01) |
Atlanta United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.01% ( 0.59) | 14.99% ( -0.59) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.55% ( 1.12) | 43.45% ( -1.12) |
CF Montreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.88% ( 0.22) | 33.12% ( -0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.28% ( 0.24) | 69.72% ( -0.23) |
Score Analysis |
Atlanta United | Draw | CF Montreal |
2-1 @ 9.88% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.42% ( -0.23) 2-0 @ 8.94% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 6.25% ( 0.14) 3-0 @ 5.66% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 3.45% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 2.97% ( 0.13) 4-0 @ 2.68% ( 0.1) 4-2 @ 1.64% ( 0.08) 5-1 @ 1.13% ( 0.07) 5-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.83% Total : 55.86% | 1-1 @ 10.41% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 5.46% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 4.97% ( -0.23) 3-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.18% Total : 22.29% | 1-2 @ 5.75% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 5.49% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 3.03% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.33% Total : 21.85% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 79 | 49 | 30 | 74 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 72 | 40 | 32 | 66 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 48 | 10 | 59 |
4 | Orlando City | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 52 |
5 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 46 | 37 | 9 | 51 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 54 | 49 | 5 | 50 |
7 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 47 |
8 | CF MontrealMontreal | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 43 |
9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 40 |
10 | DC United | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 52 | 70 | -18 | 40 |
11 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 62 | 55 | 7 | 37 |
12 | Toronto | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 37 |
13 | Nashville SCNashville | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 38 | 54 | -16 | 36 |
14 | New England RevolutionNew England | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 31 |
15 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 30 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 63 | 43 | 20 | 64 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 69 | 50 | 19 | 64 |
3 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 59 |
4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 57 |
5 | Houston DynamoHouston | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 54 |
6 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 58 | 49 | 9 | 52 |
7 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 61 | 60 | 1 | 50 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 65 | 56 | 9 | 47 |
9 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 47 |
10 | Austin FCAustin | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 42 |
11 | Dallas | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 54 | 56 | -2 | 41 |
12 | St Louis City | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 50 | 63 | -13 | 37 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 34 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 41 | 78 | -37 | 21 |