Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 58.88%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Dallas had a probability of 18.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.61%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.7%), while for a Dallas win it was 0-1 (5.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.