Major League Soccer

Apr 21, 2024 at 12.30am UK

BMO Field

Toronto
1 - 0
New England

Osei Owusu (66')
Petretta (8'), Polster (42'), Longstaff (65')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Gil (29'), Osorio (42')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and New England Revolution, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toronto

All competitions

Last Game: Charlotte FC 3-2 Toronto
Sunday, April 14 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

New England Revolution

All competitions

Major League Soccer

Last Game: NY City 2-0 New England
Sunday, April 14 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Toronto 2-2 New England Revolution

Neither side have been particularly strong defensively of late, so we expect to see plenty of opportunities for each, though we do not believe either will do enough to earn the three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 43.98%. A win for New England Revolution had a probability of 31.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.64%) and 2-0 (6.9%). The likeliest New England Revolution win was 1-2 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.

Result
Toronto	Draw	New England Revolution
43.98% ( -0.52)	24.42% ( -0)	31.6% ( 0.52)

Both teams to score 58.47% (

0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.83% (

0.22)

44.17% (

-0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.46% (

0.22)

66.54% (

-0.22)

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.79% (

-0.13)

20.21% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.47% (

-0.22)

52.53% (

0.21)

New England Revolution Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.28% (

0.44)

26.72% (

-0.45)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.02% (

0.58)

61.98% (

-0.58)

Score Analysis

Toronto 43.98%

New England Revolution 31.6%

Draw 24.42%

Toronto	Draw	New England Revolution
2-1 @ 9.11% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 8.64% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 6.9% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 4.86% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 3.68% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 3.2% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.94% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.47% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.28% ( -0) Other @ 2.9% Total : 43.98%	1-1 @ 11.39% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.01% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 5.4% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.42%	1-2 @ 7.52% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 7.13% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 4.7% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 3.31% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 2.65% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.06) 1-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.13% Total : 31.6%