We said: Georgia 2-1 Ukraine
Two well-matched teams could be separated by one goal again, but home advantage should help Georgia over the line to victory, knocking Ukraine out of the promotion race.
The hosts may have an ageing defence, but Willy Sagnol has forged them into a solid team and their ability to counter-attack is renowned.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ukraine win with a probability of 41.24%. A win for Georgia had a probability of 33.87% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ukraine win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.67%) and 0-2 (6.55%). The likeliest Georgia win was 2-1 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
0.1) 
-0.01) 
