Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 70.11%. A draw had a probability of 17% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 12.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-3 (8.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.72%), while for a Chaves win it was 2-1 (3.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Benfica in this match.
Result | ||
Chaves | Draw | Benfica |
12.92% ( -2.52) | 16.97% ( -1.26) | 70.11% ( 3.78) |
Both teams to score 56.72% ( -2.35) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
66.6% ( 0.27) | 33.4% ( -0.28) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
44.82% ( 0.31) | 55.18% ( -0.32) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.01% ( -3.23) | 37.99% ( 3.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.24% ( -3.26) | 74.76% ( 3.26) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.47% ( 0.92) | 8.53% ( -0.93) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.48% ( 2.22) | 29.52% ( -2.23) |
Score Analysis |
Chaves | Draw | Benfica |
2-1 @ 3.74% ( -0.59) 1-0 @ 3.14% ( -0.34) 2-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.32) 3-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.31) 3-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.32) Other @ 1.84% Total : 12.92% | 1-1 @ 7.72% ( -0.47) 2-2 @ 4.6% ( -0.51) 0-0 @ 3.24% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.2) Other @ 0.2% Total : 16.97% | 0-2 @ 9.82% ( 0.67) 1-2 @ 9.5% ( -0.16) 0-3 @ 8.06% ( 0.87) 0-1 @ 7.97% ( 0.22) 1-3 @ 7.8% ( 0.2) 0-4 @ 4.96% ( 0.72) 1-4 @ 4.8% ( 0.32) 2-3 @ 3.77% ( -0.24) 0-5 @ 2.44% ( 0.44) 1-5 @ 2.36% ( 0.25) 2-4 @ 2.32% ( -0.04) 2-5 @ 1.14% ( 0.03) 0-6 @ 1% ( 0.22) 1-6 @ 0.97% ( 0.14) Other @ 3.18% Total : 70.11% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 53 | 14 | 39 | 47 |
2 | Benfica | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 43 | 14 | 29 | 41 |
3 | Porto | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 15 | 27 | 41 |
4 | Braga | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 34 | 19 | 15 | 37 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 32 |
6 | Casa Pia | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 30 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 26 |
8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 24 |
9 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 23 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 23 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 22 |
12 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 21 |
13 | Nacional | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 19 |
14 | AroucaArouca | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 19 |
15 | AVS | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 18 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 17 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 15 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | -19 | 12 |
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