Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 33.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.45%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Chaves win was 2-1 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Chaves would win this match.
Result | ||
Chaves | Draw | Gil Vicente |
33.77% ( -0.26) | 24.66% ( 0.06) | 41.56% ( 0.21) |
Both teams to score 58.44% ( -0.27) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.45% ( -0.33) | 44.55% ( 0.33) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.08% ( -0.31) | 66.91% ( 0.32) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.43% ( -0.31) | 25.57% ( 0.31) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.56% ( -0.42) | 60.44% ( 0.43) |
Gil Vicente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.52% ( -0.04) | 21.47% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.49% ( -0.06) | 54.51% ( 0.07) |
Score Analysis |
Chaves | Draw | Gil Vicente |
2-1 @ 7.85% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 7.49% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 5.11% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 3.57% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 2.75% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 2.32% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.22% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.54% Total : 33.77% | 1-1 @ 11.51% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.04% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.08) 3-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.65% | 1-2 @ 8.86% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 8.45% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 6.5% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 4.54% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.33% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 3.1% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.75% 0-4 @ 1.28% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.19% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.57% Total : 41.56% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 18 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 51 | 14 | 37 | 44 |
2 | Benfica | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 11 | 31 | 41 |
3 | Porto | 18 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 41 | 14 | 27 | 40 |
4 | Braga | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 34 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 31 |
6 | Casa Pia | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 27 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 26 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 23 |
9 | Gil Vicente | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 21 |
11 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 20 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 20 |
13 | Nacional | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 19 |
14 | Estrela Amadora | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 16 |
15 | AroucaArouca | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 30 | -15 | 16 |
16 | SC FarenseFarense | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 15 |
17 | AVS | 18 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 15 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 12 |
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