Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 56.26%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 20.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.87%) and 0-2 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.88%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 1-0 (6%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.