Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 36.54%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 34.85% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.66%) and 0-2 (6.86%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 1-0 (11.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.