Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 42.5%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 29.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.44%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Tondela win was 0-1 (10.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.