Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 57.32%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 19.56%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.46%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.99%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (6.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
Result | ||
AC Milan | Draw | Genoa |
57.32% ( -0.7) | 23.12% ( 0.44) | 19.56% ( 0.27) |
Both teams to score 50.62% ( -0.92) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.17% ( -1.45) | 48.83% ( 1.45) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.07% ( -1.33) | 70.93% ( 1.33) |
AC Milan Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.21% ( -0.76) | 16.79% ( 0.75) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.25% ( -1.36) | 46.75% ( 1.36) |
Genoa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.83% ( -0.55) | 39.16% ( 0.55) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.12% ( -0.52) | 75.88% ( 0.52) |
Score Analysis |
AC Milan | Draw | Genoa |
1-0 @ 11.73% ( 0.4) 2-0 @ 10.46% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 6.23% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 5.84% ( -0.18) 4-0 @ 2.78% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 2.6% ( -0.15) 4-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.09) 5-0 @ 0.99% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 0.93% ( -0.08) Other @ 1.98% Total : 57.31% | 1-1 @ 10.99% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 6.58% ( 0.38) 2-2 @ 4.6% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.95% Total : 23.12% | 0-1 @ 6.16% ( 0.27) 1-2 @ 5.16% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.89% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 0.9% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.4% Total : 19.56% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 35 | 28 | 5 | 2 | 81 | 19 | 62 | 89 |
2 | AC Milan | 35 | 21 | 8 | 6 | 67 | 42 | 25 | 71 |
3 | Juventus | 35 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 48 | 27 | 21 | 66 |
4 | Bologna | 35 | 17 | 13 | 5 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 64 |
5 | Roma | 35 | 17 | 9 | 9 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 60 |
6 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 61 | 37 | 24 | 57 |
7 | Lazio | 35 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 56 |
8 | Fiorentina | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 51 | 39 | 12 | 50 |
9 | Napoli | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 52 | 43 | 9 | 50 |
10 | Torino | 35 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 47 |
11 | Monza | 35 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 45 |
12 | Genoa | 35 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 43 |
13 | Lecce | 35 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 37 |
14 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 35 | 8 | 10 | 17 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 34 |
15 | CagliariCagliari | 35 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 33 |
16 | FrosinoneFrosinone | 35 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 43 | 63 | -20 | 32 |
17 | Empoli | 35 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 26 | 50 | -24 | 32 |
18 | Udinese | 34 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 32 | 51 | -19 | 29 |
19 | SassuoloSassuolo | 35 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 29 |
R | Salernitana | 34 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 26 | 73 | -47 | 15 |
> Serie A Full Table |