Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 77.75%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Sampdoria had a probability of 7.05%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.61%) and 3-0 (11.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.11%), while for a Sampdoria win it was 0-1 (3%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
Result | ||
AC Milan | Draw | Sampdoria |
77.75% ( 0.16) | 15.2% ( -0.11) | 7.05% ( -0.05) |
Both teams to score 39.07% ( 0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.16% ( 0.28) | 43.84% ( -0.28) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.77% ( 0.27) | 66.23% ( -0.27) |
AC Milan Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.64% ( 0.11) | 9.36% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.47% ( 0.25) | 31.53% ( -0.25) |
Sampdoria Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
43.1% ( 0.04) | 56.9% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
11.01% ( 0.02) | 88.98% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
AC Milan | Draw | Sampdoria |
2-0 @ 14.94% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 12.61% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 11.79% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.43% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 6.99% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 6.65% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 3.94% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 3.31% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.88% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.87% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 1.31% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.92% Total : 77.74% | 1-1 @ 7.11% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.33% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 2.38% Other @ 0.38% Total : 15.2% | 0-1 @ 3% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 2.01% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.05% Total : 7.05% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Napoli | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 37 | 15 | 22 | 53 |
2 | Inter Milan | 21 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 55 | 18 | 37 | 50 |
3 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 22 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 48 | 25 | 23 | 46 |
4 | Lazio | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 38 | 30 | 8 | 39 |
5 | Juventus | 22 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 37 |
6 | Fiorentina | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 22 | 13 | 36 |
7 | AC Milan | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 32 | 23 | 9 | 34 |
8 | Bologna | 21 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 34 |
9 | Roma | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 30 |
10 | Torino | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 26 |
11 | Udinese | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 26 |
12 | Genoa | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 30 | -10 | 26 |
13 | Como | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 22 |
14 | Empoli | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 21 |
15 | CagliariCagliari | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 23 | 36 | -13 | 21 |
16 | Parma | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 20 |
17 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 20 |
18 | Lecce | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 40 | -25 | 20 |
19 | VeneziaVenezia | 22 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 16 |
20 | Monza | 22 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 13 |
> Serie A Full Table |