Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 56.9%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for SPAL had a probability of 19.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.99%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.32%), while for a SPAL win it was 0-1 (6.66%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monza would win this match.