Good evening! Thank you very much for joining
Sports Mole for tonight's huge Premier League
relegation battle between
Swansea City and Southampton at the Liberty Stadium!
Premier League matches do not come much bigger than this, with these two sides sitting either side of the dreaded dotted line but separated only by goal difference. It is Southampton who find themselves in a position of safety as things stand, but that could all change this evening. Victory for either would leave them on the brink of survival, while fans of West Bromwich Albion will also be keeping an eager eye on proceedings as anything other than a draw would result in their relegation from the top flight.
Let's start with a look at the team news...
SWANSEA STARTING XI: Fabianski; Naughton, Fernandez, Mawson; Roberts, Ki, King, Olsson; Clucas, A Ayew, J Ayew
SWANSEA SUBS: Nordfeldt, Van der Hoorn, Carroll, Sanches, Dyer, Narsingh, Abraham
SOUTHAMPTON STARTING XI: McCarthy; Bednarek, Hoedt, Stephens; Cedric, Romeu, Hojbjerg, Bertrand; Tadic, Austin, Redmond
SOUTHAMPTON SUBS: Forster, McQueen, Ward-Prowse, Sims, Long, Carrillo, Gabbiadini
What can we make of those two teams, then?
Well, the headline news as far as the home side are concerned is that Kyle Naughton returns to the starting lineup for tonight's match, having missed the defeat at Bournemouth on Saturday due to a stomach bug.
Naughton comes back into the side as part of Swansea's back three, with Mike van der Hoorn the man to drop out of the team as he takes his place on the bench.
Sam Clucas also missed the game against Bournemouth after picking up a knock, although he was deemed fit enough for the bench at least on Saturday and has now fully recovered to regain his place in the starting lineup tonight.
The teamsheet released by Swansea suggests that Clucas will play in a forward three alongside the Ayew brothers Andre and Jordan, taking Nathan Dyer's place in the team as the winger drops to the bench.
In all,
Carlos Carvalhal has made three changes to his side for this match following Saturday's defeat to Bournemouth, with Naughton and Clucas being joined in the starting XI by Andy King.
Tom Carroll is the man to make way for King in midfield, but in all there are not wholesale changes made by Carvalhal despite the disappointing nature of that defeat to Bournemouth. The hosts are again expected to deploy a 3-4-3 formation, although that could easily switch to a 5-4-1 system should they need to protect a lead.
We are at that stage of the season now that other clubs may be looking at the relegation contenders to see whether there are any players they could poach on the cheap should they go down, and Swansea will be worried about losing one or two of their main men.
Alfie Mawson is arguably the player who would be most in demand if the Swans do suffer relegation, but the likes of Fernandez, Naughton, Fabianski, Ki and Andre Ayew are all likely to have plenty of suitors too.
The same is true of Southampton's squad, which has acted as a feeder club to plenty of teams in recent years anyway - most notably Liverpool.
The prospect of the Saints suffering relegation is sure to interest a number of teams who would like to sign a few of their players for a cut price, with the likes of Stephens, Cedric, Romeu, Bertrand, Tadic, Austin and Redmond all likely to be in demand - and that is just from today's starting XI!
The Saints are without Mario Lemina this evening after he picked up a hamstring injury against Everton at the weekend, with the midfielder missing out altogether which must also surely make him a doubt for the final day on Sunday as well.
Lemina is replaced in the starting lineup by Nathan Redmond, who finally ended his long goal drought to open the scoring against the Toffees at Goodison Park and has since been backed to rediscover his confidence by manager Mark Hughes.
Southampton are also unable to call upon the services of Maya Yoshida as he serves his suspension following his two yellow cards against Everton on Saturday.
Jack Stephens comes into the starting lineup in place of Yoshida this evening, slotting into the back three alongside Bednarek and Hoedt, both of whom retain their places in the team.
Those are the only two changes made by the visitors this evening - both of which were enforced - which suggests that
Mark Hughes was pleased with his side's display against Everton and wants more of the same.
There is plenty of attacking talent in that Southampton side - from Charlie Austin's finishing ability to Nathan Redmond's pace and the creativity of Dusan Tadic. Even on the flanks they have two very good attacking full-backs in Cedric and Bertrand, so there is no reason why Southampton can't come away with all three points here.
Swansea know that defeat tonight would all but spell the end for them in the Premier League, though, with their inferior goal difference giving Southampton the slight edge while they remain level on points.
Should the Swans lose this match then it would take a significantly swing in goal difference on the final day to keep Swansea up, while even a victory for the Swans would still leave them needing to avoid defeat on the final day of the season to guarantee their Premier League status.
Fortunately for Swansea, their final game of the campaign looks a lot easier than Southampton's on paper, with Carvalhal's side taking on already-relegated Stoke City whereas Southampton are at the other end of the spectrum, hosting champions Manchester City.
It should not be forgotten that huddersfield are also still in the mix and that they have a worse goal difference than both Swansea and Southampton, so if Swansea lose tonight and Huddersfield lose against Chelsea on Wednesday then the Swans could still save themselves at the Terriers' expense on the final day.
The onus will be on Swansea to get the victory more than Southampton tonight given that they have the inferior goal difference, meaning that even a draw - which incidentally is the only result which would keep West Brom alive to fight another day - would still leave matters in Southampton's hands.
Victory for either side would actually lift them not only three points clear of the relegation zone, but also above Huddersfield into 16th until at least tomorrow, when David Wagner's side face Chelsea.
Both teams can claim that their own fate remains in their own hands, then, but when it comes to the form book it is Southampton who have the edge.
Swansea come into this match without a win in their last eight matches across all competitions stretching back to March - including seven in the Premier League. It is a very poorly-timed dip in form which has plunged Swansea back into trouble just when it looked as though they might have escaped it. Prior to this ongoing eight-match winless run, the Swans had lost just one of their previous 13 outings.
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The most recent of those matches saw Swansea slip to a 1-0 defeat at Bournemouth on Saturday - a result which saw them slip into the relegation zone after other results went against him.
That means that this will be the first Premier League game Swansea start in the relegation zone since March 3, when they beat West Ham 4-1 to climb out of the bottom three. A repeat of that performance and result tonight would be priceless for the hosts.
Only relegated Stoke are on a longer winless run that Swansea in the Premier League at the moment, and a defeat today would see them lose four on the bounce for the first time under Carvalhal. It is goals which have been their main issue, netting just twice in their last eight games and posting the joint-worst attacking record in the top flight.
No team has scored fewer goals at home either (16), with the Swans having drawn a blank in seven league games at the Liberty Stadium this season - a joint league-high for home games.
In general, though, Swansea have been good at home since Carvalhal took over, with only Tottenham and Chelsea beating the Swans at the Liberty in the league under the Portuguese boss.
They are winless in their last three home games across all competitions - following a run of seven consecutive victories - but in the Premier League they have lost just one of their last six outings in front of their own fans - including wins over Liverpool and Arsenal.
Southampton will still be very wary, then, and it will be interesting to see how they approach this game considering that the goal difference is in their favour and a draw favours them more than it does Swansea - at least in the short term.
A draw would also be a gamble for the visitors tonight, though, as they would then need to match or better Swansea's result on the final day which, considering they are facing top of the league and Swansea are facing bottom of the league, could prove problematic.
Victory would all but secure Southampton's Premier League status for a seventh successive year due to their superior goal difference, although they would still need to avoid an unlikely goal swing on the final day against Manchester City.
Defeat, on the other hand, could be the final nail in Southampton's coffin as it would leave them needing to beat Manchester City and hope that Swansea or Huddersfield lost their final-day matches - and indeed that Huddersfield lose on Wednesday too.
While Swansea have suffered a drastic dip in form at exactly the wrong time, Southampton have begun to improve their results just in time to give themselves real hope of avoiding the drop, with one win and two draws in their last three outings.
The Saints were just seconds away from making it back-to-back wins for the first time all season on Saturday when they led Everton 1-0 at Goodison Park, but a 96th-minute deflected strike from Tom Davies cruelly denied them a win which would have left them in a much stronger position heading into this match.
Despite that recent improvement, the reason Southampton are in such trouble is easy to see when you look a little further back in their form. Mark Hughes's side have won just one of their last 10 outings in the Premier League, drawing four of those and losing five.
Indeed, their last 23 league games stretching back to November have yielded only two wins, with 10 defeats and a whopping 11 draws in that time.
Over the course of the entire season no team in the Premier League has won fewer games than Southampton's six, while they have also recorded a league-high 15 draws from their 36 matches.
A large reason behind both statistics is Southampton's inability to hold on to a lead, with the Saints having dropped 21 points from winning positions this season - second only to West Bromwich Albion in the top flight. Eight of those 21 points have come in Mark Hughes's six games in charge too.
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Southampton are winless in their last six Premier League away games, with three draws and three defeats in that time, and they have only won once in the road since September, losing half of their 16 games during that period.
Indeed, only relegated Stoke have lost fewer away games than Southampton's two victories this season, but despite that the Saints would actually sit 13th - above Arsenal - if only away form counted. That is largely thanks to their eight draws on the road, with the Saints having lost fewer away games than Arsenal, Everton and Newcastle - all of whom are currently in the top half of the table - this season.
The buildup to this game has not been without controversy, with Southampton left furious after the hotel they booked to stay in prior to tonight's match was cancelled at the last minute.
The Swansea Marriott cited a virus as the reason behind their cancellation, but the hotel remained open to the public and Southampton may well suspect a bit of foul play there. They were instead forced to relocate to the Vale of Glamorgan hotel near Cardiff, which means a longer drive to the ground today.
PREDICTION! Right, we're 10 minutes away from kickoff at the Liberty Stadium, which means that it is time for a prediction!
This is such a huge game, and it is a tough one to call considering how poor Swansea's results have been of late. Southampton look more like the team on an upward trajectory, but Swansea have been good at home - even in defeat to Chelsea in their most recent home game - and that advantage could make the difference. It is a match which could easily go either way or end up as a draw, but I am going to plump for a home win.
SPORTS MOLE SAYS: Swansea 2-1 Southampton
These two sides played out a goalless draw on the opening day of this season, with different managers in the dugout for both teams - indeed it was Mauricio Pellegrino's first match in charge of Southampton.
A repeat result tonight would make things very interesting indeed, and it is a result West Brom fans will be cheering on too as that would take their bid to pull off the greatest of escapes right down to the final day.
These two sides have met 11 times in the Premier League before, and it is Southampton who hold the edge over that time with six victories and only two defeats.
Swansea's biggest problem this season has been putting the ball in the back of the net, and it is a similar story in this fixture too as they have failed to score in seven of those 11 previous Premier League clashes.
Indeed, Southampton have kept four clean sheets from their previous five Premier League visits to the Liberty Stadium, picking up three wins in that time and drawing once.
The only time they have conceded - and lost, for that matter - at this stadium was on their most recent visit, though, when Alfie Mawson and Gylfi Sigurdsson scored in a 2-1 win last January.
Mark Hughes, meanwhile, has already beaten Swansea once in the Premier League this season, with his Stoke side running out 2-1 winners in December.
Right, the players are out and we're almost ready to go here. A reminder of the team news before we do get started...
SWANSEA STARTING XI: Fabianski; Naughton, Fernandez, Mawson; Roberts, Ki, King, Olsson; Clucas, A Ayew, J Ayew
SOUTHAMPTON STARTING XI: McCarthy; Bednarek, Hoedt, Stephens; Cedric, Romeu, Hojbjerg, Bertrand; Tadic, Austin, Redmond
KICKOFF: Here we go! Southampton get us underway for this huge
relegation battle!
The atmosphere is rocking in the Liberty Stadium as you might expect. Swansea win an early free kick in a very promising position...
Andre Ayew takes the free kick on, but he fires it straight into the wall.
Southampton have settled into this match fairly quickly, but Swansea are looking to play at a good tempo whenever they are on the ball. It is good - and necessary - to see some urgency from them, but they don't want to tire themselves out early on here.
SHOT! Southampton come pouring forward as Tadic plays the ball through for Redmond, who tries to cut inside but runs straight into Fernandez. Redmond refuses to give it up and wins it back before giving it to Bertrand, who drags a tame effort into the arms of the keeper.
SHOT! Swansea respond with their first shot on target of the match, and while this one is quite central from King it is still a smart save from McCarthy. King's toe-poke bounced just in front of the keeper, who saw it late but got down well and held on.
The Swansea fans are trying to get their team going by making a lot of noise, but it is Southampton who have enjoyed the best territory in this opening 10 minutes. No major chances for either side, though.
CHANCE! Really good play from Jordan Ayew as he gets levered off the ball and is about to win a free kick, but instead bounces back to his feet and continues his run through the middle. He then gives it to his brother Andre, but Bednarek comes across with a brilliant last-ditch challenge in the area. Swansea claim for a penalty as the ball struck the arm of Hoedt - who had also gone to ground - but Michael Oliver rightly waves away the appeals.
This has been better from Swansea in the last few minutes as they begin to up the ante. Southampton are taking their time over the restarts - they want to slow this game and Swansea's momentum down.
Swansea are making it really difficult for Southampton to play their usual passing game at the moment. They are making it a scrappier affair than the visitors might like.
Southampton do string together some good passes here, but the final ball through from Redmond is too heavy for Austin as Fabianski comes out to claim it.
Both sides are finding it difficult to break down the opposition's defence in this one so far. Both are dropping into back fives when the opposition have the ball, which is making things very crowded.
YELLOW CARD! The first card of the match is shown to Ki, who cynically tripped Hojbjerg to prevent a Southampton attack.
I have mentioned the Swansea fans a couple of times already tonight, but the Southampton supporters are also making plenty of noise. Around 2,000 people have made the trip from the South coast to South Wales.
This isn't exactly an advert for free-flowing, easy-on-the-eye football at the moment. It is all very scrappy, which is perhaps to be expected with so much at stake.
CHANCE! Half a chance for the hosts as Ki hoists the ball back into the area, looping it high into the area. Jordan Ayew gets his head on it, but it is by no means an easy chance and he sends his header comfortably over the bar.
Tadic drops a ball over the top of the defence for Austin, who takes it down on his chest, but Swansea's defence scramble back and clear the danger before any damage can be done.
SHOT! This about sums the game up so far. Naughton sells Ki short, and Ki himself should do better rather than allowing Redmond to nip in and poke the ball to Austin. The Saints are in a promising position, but Austin instead goes for goal from range and drags a poor strike wide.
CHANCE! This is more like it from the visitors! Hojbjerg plays the ball through for Austin, who is in a much better position this time, but his low effort across goal is saved by Fabianski.
The Ayew brothers are working very hard up front for Swansea, but they haven't had much in terms of chances so far. Swansea have struggled for goals for this season and haven't particularly looked like scoring yet tonight either.
CLOSE! This is about as close as Swansea have come, with King's cross from the right being met by a glancing header from Clucas. McCarthy looks to have it covered, but he still needs to scramble across goal as the ball bounces narrowly wide of the far post.
Swansea's pressure is starting to grow at the end of this half now. They are throwing cross after cross into the Southampton area, but so far the visitors have dealt with them.
YELLOW CARD! Romeu goes into the book for a late sliding challenge on King.
Southampton have not always defended crosses well this season, but they are repelling every single one which comes into their box here. It is relentless pressure from Swansea at the moment, and right now Southampton will just be looking to get to half time unscathed.
Ambitious from Andre Ayew here as he skilfully skips past two defenders before trying to whip the ball either into the box or into the top corner. Whatever he was trying, he didn't get it right as the ball flies well over the crossbar.
CHANCE! Having been on the back foot for the last 10 minutes or so, they suddenly threaten to nick a goal at the end of the half. Austin finds space at the back post to meet a cross with a very sweetly-struck volley, but it is too close to Fabianski who plucks it out of the air and makes it look easy.
Important contribution from Andre Ayew in the defensive third now as he throws himself in the way of a shot from Redmond, conceding a corner in the process.
There will be one minute of added time at the end of this first half.
HALF TIME: Swansea City 0-0 Southampton
The first half comes to an end at the Liberty Stadium, then, and it remains goalless in this huge relegation battle between Swansea and Southampton.
It has been an understandably edgy affair and a scrappy opening 45 minutes so far, but the best chances have fallen the way of Southampton. As things stand, though, it is West Brom who are the big winners tonight.
Southampton's two clearest chances have both fallen the way of Charlie Austin - the man they would want them too - but on both occasions he has put his finish too close to Lukasz Fabianski.
The first saw him played through on goal by Hojbjerg before drilling a low strike towards the bottom far corner, but in the end it was too easy for the Swansea keeper to get down and save. The second was a very sweetly-struck volley after Romeu had flicked Cedric's cross on, but it was straight at Fabianski, who plucked it out of the air.
Swansea have threatened on a couple of occasions themselves, particularly during the final 10 minutes or so of the first half when their pressure really began to grow.
The closest they have come was a header from Clucas which bounced narrowly wide of the far post, while Andy King and Jordan Ayew have also had sights of goal for the hosts.
This game is crying out for someone to take it by the scruff of the neck and inject some real quality into it, but there haven't been many signs of that happening so far.
There is so much riding on this game, of course, but a draw doesn't do much for either side so it will be interesting to see who ups the tempo first and really pushes for the victory in this second half.
KICKOFF: Swansea get us back underway for the second half! A huge 45 minutes awaits for both of these two sides!
SAVE! Brilliant from Jordan Ayew as he cuts inside from the left flank before unleashes a dipping effort which looks destined to nestle into the top corner before McCarthy gets a crucial fingertip to it.
This has been a really bright start to the second half from Swansea, who are putting Southampton under some early pressure. An ambitious volley which is sliced a long way wide from Olsson gives the visitors a reprieve, though.
Handbags on the touchline as Andre Ayew gives Hoedt a little shove as the ball is going off, sending him tumbling to the ground right in front of Carvalhal. Hoedt is angry about it and Carvalhal gets involved too, but it is quickly diffused.
SAVE! Austin tries his luck again here, and once more he catches the ball nicely, but Fabianski's positioning is good again and he holds on to the powerful strike.
This is the best moment of quality we have seen in this match so far - both the shot from Ayew and the save from McCarthy...
This is turning into a real scrap now. Southampton break quickly after winning the ball and Naughton finds himself isolate against Redmond, but he does well inside his own area and Roberts knocks the ball behind for a corner as it breaks to him.
It is Southampton who are on top now, with both Bertrand and Cedric getting forward down the flanks and putting crosses into the box which Swansea need to deal with.
CHANCE! Half a chance for Stephens as he loses his marker from a corner at the back post, only to plant his header into the back of Naughton and behind for another corner.
CHANCE! Huge chance for Southampton! The initial delivery comes to nothing, but Cedric keeps it alive on the right flank before putting another cross into the box. Austin meets it unchallenged in the middle of the area and he really should score, but he directs his header straight at Fabianski!
SWANSEA SUB: The hosts make their first change of the night as Olsson is replaced by Tammy Abraham. An attacking change from Carvalhal!
SOUTHAMPTON SUB: Southampton respond with a change of their own as Shane Long replaces Redmond.
There is a lot of concern for a stricken Southampton player here as Michael Oliver calls for medics on the field quickly. It looked like McCarthy was the man to collide with Bednarek, who has been left prone inside the area.
Michael Oliver calls for the stretcher now. This does not look good at all for Bednarek, and suddenly a previously-raucous Liberty Stadium has fallen silent.
Bednarek is up on his feet now and seems to have just mouthed "I'm okay" to the physios. It is unlikely that he will be able to continue, although he clearly wants to, but it doesn't look serious at least.
SOUTHAMPTON SUB: That prompts another attacking change from the Saints as
Manolo Gabbiadini replaces Bednarek. We will also have a hefty chunk of injury time after that!
SAVE! Abraham has looked the most likely since coming on. He is allowed to turn and then drive at the defence before firing a low strike towards goal which is comfortably gathered by McCarthy.
GOAL! Swansea City 0-1 Southampton (Manolo Gabbiadini)
How big could that goal prove to be?! Just a few minutes after coming on, Gabbiadini has opened the scoring for Southampton in this huge relegation battle!
It is a scrappy goal, but they won't care one bit. A cross into the box is kept alive at the back post and then flicked on by Romeu to Austin, who again fires his effort too close to Fabianski, who reacts well to keep it out. However, the ball bounces back out into the area and Gabbiadini reacts quickest to fire home the rebound!
A reminder, then, that as things stand West Brom will be relegated tonight, and Southampton will be three points clear of dangerous going into the final day, with a superior goal difference too.
SWANSEA SUB: The hosts respond with another change as Luciano Narsingh replaces Naughton.
Mawson and Romeu collide with each other on the sideline and Michael Oliver immediately calls for the physios again, but Mawson is having none of it. He clearly felt that one, but he bounces back up and tells the physios to leave him alone - he is fired up for this one.
CHANCE! Austin has had the chances to have put this game to bed by now. This isn't the best of them, but it is another half chance as he gets his head to the ball inside the box but puts his effort straight at Fabianski once more.
SWANSEA SUB: A third and final change for the hosts as Tom Carroll replaces King. A final throw of the dice for Carvalhal!
SOUTHAMPTON SUB: Southampton also make their final change as Tadic is replaced by Sam McQueen.
Close one for Swansea as Abraham nods a good header towards goal which McCarthy tips over. The linesman's flag is up, although it was Ayew who was the man offside.
Narsingh lifts a cross into the box which is just too high for Abraham before being cleared as far as Ki. Ki goes for a first-time volley, but slices it wildly off target.
The Swansea fans are despairing now. They know what this defeat means, although there is still hope if Huddersfield are beaten by Chelsea and Arsenal in their final two games.
CHANCE! Chance for Southampton to put this game to bed as Gabbiadini lays the ball into the path of Long, who powers his finish into the side-netting when he should have gone across goal.
There will be SIX minutes of added time at the end of this match. Will we see more late drama here?
CHANCE! Half a chance for Abraham as he takes the ball down brilliantly on his chest before going for a half-volley on the turn which he slices over the crossbar.
YELLOW CARD! Fernandez picks up a late yellow card for a foul on Long.
SAVE! Gabbiadini goes for goal from range, but his effort is kept out by Fabianski.
FULL TIME: Swansea City 0-1 Southampton
Southampton are celebrating as though they are safe, and they are about as close to it as they can be now. They beat Swansea 1-0 courtesy of Gabbiadini's goal to move three points clear of the bottom three with just one game remaining.
Depending on events in Huddersfield's match tomorrow, that means that Southampton can afford to lose on the final day and still stay up - so long as there isn't a nine-goal swing in goal difference with Swansea also winning.
Right, that is all we have time for this evening!
Thank you very much for joining Sports Mole for tonight's crucial relegation showdown, which has gone the way of Southampton as they move to the brink of Premier League survival at Swansea's expense. I will leave you with our match report, and be sure to stick around for reaction too.
There is plenty more Premier League action to come tomorrow too, so check back in for that! From me, though, it is goodbye for now!