Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 43.78%. A win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 28.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.65%) and 0-2 (8.38%). The likeliest Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 (9.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Penarol in this match.