Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 52.38%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 24.3% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.61%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (6.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.