Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 50.81%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 26.35% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.26%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 (6.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Central Coast Mariners would win this match.
Result | ||
Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
50.81% ( -1.17) | 22.83% ( 0.32) | 26.35% ( 0.85) |
Both teams to score 60.32% ( -0.27) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.9% ( -0.73) | 40.09% ( 0.73) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.54% ( -0.76) | 62.46% ( 0.76) |
Central Coast Mariners Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.05% ( -0.67) | 15.94% ( 0.67) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.79% ( -1.24) | 45.21% ( 1.24) |
Brisbane Roar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.76% ( 0.25) | 28.23% ( -0.25) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.06% ( 0.31) | 63.94% ( -0.31) |
Score Analysis |
Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
2-1 @ 9.6% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 8.26% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 7.59% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 5.87% ( -0.17) 3-0 @ 4.64% ( -0.17) 3-2 @ 3.72% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 2.7% ( -0.14) 4-0 @ 2.13% ( -0.13) 4-2 @ 1.71% ( -0.08) 5-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.08) Other @ 3.61% Total : 50.81% | 1-1 @ 10.45% ( 0.19) 2-2 @ 6.07% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.5% ( 0.15) 3-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.25% Total : 22.83% | 1-2 @ 6.61% ( 0.16) 0-1 @ 5.69% ( 0.23) 0-2 @ 3.6% ( 0.17) 1-3 @ 2.79% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 2.56% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.08) Other @ 3.59% Total : 26.35% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Auckland FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 18 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 17 |
4 | Macarthur | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 13 | 7 | 15 |
5 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 14 |
6 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 14 |
7 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
8 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 |
9 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
10 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 10 |
11 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 27 | -22 | 5 |
13 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 2 |
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