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Africa Cup of Nations
Ethiopia national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Oct 15, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara (Abidjan)
Guinea national football team

Ethiopia
0 - 3
Guinea


Baye (59'), Haile Bitew (60')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Guirassy (16', 23' pen.), Toure (19')
Sow (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Ethiopia and Guinea, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ethiopia

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Guinea 4-1 Ethiopia
Saturday, October 12 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Guinea

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Guinea 4-1 Ethiopia
Saturday, October 12 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

We said: Ethiopia 1-3 Guinea

 Buoyed by their dominant display on Friday, Guinea will return to the Ouattara Ebimpe Olympic Stadium with sky-high confidence as they look to move into the qualifying places. While we expect Ethiopia to go all out as they seek to restore their pride and kick-start their qualifying journey, Paquille's men boast the firepower needed to get the job done and we are backing them to extend their dominance in this fixture. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea win with a probability of 38.36%. A win for Ethiopia had a probability of 31.87% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guinea win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.58%) and 1-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Ethiopia win was 1-0 (12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Guinea would win this match.

Result
EthiopiaDrawGuinea
31.87% (0.016999999999999 0.02) 29.77% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01) 38.36% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Both teams to score 42.4% (0.035000000000004 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
35.37% (0.039999999999999 0.04)64.63% (-0.043000000000006 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
16.37% (0.027000000000001 0.03)83.63% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
Ethiopia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.94% (0.034000000000006 0.03)37.05% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.15% (0.032 0.03)73.84% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
Guinea Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.36% (0.018000000000001 0.02)32.64% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.81% (0.021000000000001 0.02)69.18% (-0.022999999999996 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Ethiopia 31.86%
    Guinea 38.36%
    Draw 29.76%
EthiopiaDrawGuinea
1-0 @ 12% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 6.67% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-0 @ 5.96% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-1 @ 2.21% (0.004 0)
3-0 @ 1.97% (0.002 0)
3-2 @ 1.24% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 1.81%
Total : 31.86%
1-1 @ 13.44%
0-0 @ 12.09% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 3.74% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
Other @ 0.49%
Total : 29.76%
0-1 @ 13.54% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
0-2 @ 7.58% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
1-2 @ 7.53% (0.0040000000000004 0)
0-3 @ 2.83% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-3 @ 2.81% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 1.4% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.68%
Total : 38.36%

How you voted: Ethiopia vs Guinea

Ethiopia
18.2%
Draw
9.1%
Guinea
72.7%
22
Head to Head
Oct 12, 2024 5pm
Group Stage
Guinea
4-1
Ethiopia
Guirassy (18' pen., 38', 45+2'), Cisse (48')
Markneh (53')
Habtamu Aregawi (18'), Markneh (54')
> Preview
Mar 27, 2023 8pm
Group Stage
Ethiopia
2-3
Guinea
Markneh (34'), Jima (90+5')
Keita (4'), Moriba (42'), Guilavogui (70')
Mar 24, 2023 8.30pm
Group Stage
Guinea
2-0
Ethiopia
Kamano (39'), Bayo (73')
rhs 2.0
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