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Spurs logo
Premier League | Gameweek 35
Jul 12, 2020 at 4.30pm UK
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Arsenal logo

Spurs
2 - 1
Arsenal

Heung-min (19'), Alderweireld (81')
Lo Celso (16'), Aurier (34'), Davies (45+2'), Winks (76'), Bergwijn (87')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Lacazette (16')
Lacazette (45'), Pepe (61'), Saka (90')

Preview: Tottenham Hotspur vs. Arsenal - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's North London derby between Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal, including team news and predicted lineups.

Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal meet in a unique North London derby on Sunday afternoon with the sides separated by one point and one place in the Premier League.

The famous fixture will be staged behind closed doors at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for the first time owing to the coronavirus pandemic.

Arsenal enter the fixture in better form than their local rivals and are a point better off in the final Europa League qualifying spot.


Match preview

Tottenham Hotspur manager Jose Mourinho pictured on July 6, 2020© Reuters

Far sooner than many had predicted, Tottenham supporters already appear to be losing faith in head coach Jose Mourinho following a poor set of results.

Spurs have won back-to-back home matches, against West Ham United and Everton, but those are their only two victories in 11 matches stretching back to mid-February.

Losing 3-1 to Sheffield United last week was a tough one to take given the VAR furore surrounding the match, but the stalemate with Bournemouth could well prove Mourinho's nadir.

Against a side horribly out of form and fresh on the back of shipping five to Manchester United, Tottenham failed to register a single attempt on target.

Not only have the results been disappointing, with Spurs exiting two cup competitions in the space of a week before the lockdown, the performances have arguably been even worse.

Tottenham Hotspur's Harry Winks and Arsenal's Sokratis Papastathopoulos clash on September 1, 2019© Reuters

Matters boiled over on the field earlier this week, too, with Son Heung-min and Hugo Lloris squaring up just before half time in the slender win over Everton.

Mourinho possesses an array of attacking talent, not least prolific striker Harry Kane, but getting the most out of those players is proving very tough.

One positive for Mourinho has been an increase in clean sheets - three in their last four games - and he has called on his side to find a balance between attack and defence.

That is the only way Tottenham are going to keep their Premier League season alive, with a top-five finish now out of the question and the Europa League the best they can aim for.

Bitter rivals Arsenal are in a similar position, having been made to pay the price for a slow start to action last month when losing their first two games back.

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta pictured on July 7, 2020© Reuters

In truth, the Gunners' problems go a lot further back than that, but it was after the 2-1 loss at Brighton & Hove Albion that Mikel Arteta seemed to realise the size of the task that he has inherited.

The Spaniard has gained a reputation for being a good tactician and Arsenal have certainly showed real signs of recovery in the three weeks since that loss on the South Coast.

In fact, Arsenal had won three games in a row without conceding before being pegged back in a late 1-1 draw with Leicester City in their most recent outing.

Their upturn in form has seen them climb above Tottenham into eighth, which will be enough for a European spot assuming Manchester City's continental ban is upheld by CAS.

Not since October 2018 have Arsenal won three away league games in a row, however, while Tottenham are seeking three successive home league wins for the first time in 15 months.

With more than just bragging rights on the line this weekend, both teams will be desperate to prolong those respective runs.

Tottenham Hotspur's Premier League form: DDWLWD
Tottenham Hotspur's form (all competitions): LDWLWD

Arsenal's Premier League form: WLLWWD
Arsenal's form (all competitions): LWWWWD


Team News

Tottenham Hotspur's Harry Kane celebrates scoring their first goal on December 7, 2019© Reuters

Just when he was enjoying a run in the side in his favoured centre-back position, Eric Dier has been hit with a four-match ban by the FA for confronting a supporter after March's FA Cup defeat to Norwich City.

Fellow first-team regular Dele Alli is doubtful, meanwhile, having missed Tottenham's last two games with a minor hamstring problem.

Japhet Tanganga, another regular before being struck down injury, is also absent for the visit of Arsenal, as are Troy Parrott and Juan Foyth.

Mourinho may look to rotate his side on the back of the stalemate with Bournemouth, which could mean Son and Lucas Moura replacing Steven Bergwijn and Erik Lamela in attack.

Kane's place in the starting lineup is not in doubt as the Englishman looks to add to his tally of 10 goals against Arsenal, making him the fixture's outright top scorer.

Arsenal forward Eddie Nketiah after being handed a red card against Leicester City on July 7, 2020.© Reuters

Arsenal also have a player suspended for their short trip across town as Eddie Nketiah was sent off shortly after being brought on against Leicester.

Matteo Guendouzi and Mesut Ozil have struggled to make the matchday squad over the past couple of weeks, meanwhile, and that is unlikely to change this weekend.

Elsewhere, Bernd Leno, Calum Chambers, Pablo Mari and Gabriel Martinelli are all carrying injuries and will play no part against Tottenham.

Arteta has been rewarded with his decision to switch to three at the back and there is no reason why that will change on Sunday, possibly with the same XI from the Leicester draw.

Leading scorer Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been involved in four goals in his last three Premier League games against Spurs, but each of those came at the Emirates Stadium.

Tottenham Hotspur possible starting lineup:
Lloris; Aurier, Alderweireld, Vertonghen, Davies; Sissoko, Winks, Lo Celso; Lucas, Kane, Son

Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Mustafi, Luiz, Kolasinac; Bellerin, Xhaka, Ceballos, Tierney; Saka, Lacazette, Aubameyang


Head To Head

Tottenham are unbeaten in their last five home league meetings with Arsenal, although this will be their first such meeting at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

The Gunners have kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 top-flight trips to their closest neighbours, coming in a 1-0 victory six years ago.

In terms of this season's reverse fixture, Spurs squandered a two-goal lead eight months ago to draw 2-2.

Indeed, Tottenham have dropped 42 points from winning positions against Arsenal in the Premier League - more than any side has dropped against another in the competition's history.


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Tottenham Hotspur 1-1 Arsenal

Arsenal have been in good form over the past few weeks and have overtaken Tottenham in the table. The Gunners are winless in five league trips to Spurs, however, and we are tipping this first ever encounter between the sides at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to finish level.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tottenham Hotspur win with a probability of 40.15%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 34.45% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tottenham Hotspur win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 0-1 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tottenham Hotspur would win this match.


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Tottenham Hotspur manager Jose Mourinho pictured on July 6, 2020
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool119112161528
2Manchester CityMan City117222213923
3Chelsea115422113819
4Arsenal115421812619
5Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest115421510519
6Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton115421915419
7Fulham115331613318
8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
9Aston Villa115331717018
10Tottenham HotspurSpurs1151523131016
11Brentford115152222016
12Bournemouth114341515015
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Leicester CityLeicester112451421-710
16Everton112451017-710
17Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
18Crystal Palace11146815-77
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves111371627-116
20Southampton11119721-144


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