Bayern Munich travel to RheinEnergieStadion to face FC Koln on Saturday knowing that securing all three points is a must is they wish to keep their slim hopes of retaining the Bundesliga title alive.
The Bavarian giants' 10-year dominance at the summit of German football is at serious risk of coming to an end as they sit two points behind league leaders Borussia Dortmund heading into the final weekend of the season.
Match preview
© Reuters
Koln have experienced a very inconsistent 2022-23 campaign, winning 10, drawing 12 and losing 11 of their 33 Bundesliga matches, so there is little surprise to see them sitting 10th in the table at present.
Nevertheless, Steffen Baumgart's side still have a chance to secure back-to-back top-half finishes as they sit three points behind ninth-placed Mainz 05, who face title-chasing Borussia Dortmund away from home in their final game of the season.
Ten points accumulated from a possible 15 available has helped Koln climb away from the relegation picture and into mid-table, with consecutive wins over Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha Berlin followed by a 1-1 draw with Werder Bremen last weekend.
The Billy Goats were on course to claim maximum points courtesy of a first-half strike from Steffen Tigges, but they were ultimately forced to settle for just a solitary point after Romano Schmid scored a 73rd-minute equaliser.
Koln will hope to conclude the campaign on a high, but that seems a tall order considering that they have lost each of their last eight Bundesliga home meetings against Bayern Munich, their longest-ever losing run on home soil against any opponent in the German top flight.
© Reuters
For the first time since the 2011-12 campaign, perennial champions Bayern Munich enter the final matchday of a Bundesliga season not sitting at the top of the table; Indeed, Borussia Dortmund were perched at the summit that season and went on to lift the title, and history could repeat itself this weekend.
After winning three successive matches against Hertha Berlin, Werder Bremen and Schalke 04, the Bavarian giants suffered a 3-1 home defeat against RB Leipzig last Saturday and have subsequently allowed Dortmund – who beat Augsburg 3-0 last time out – to leapfrog them into top spot.
Bayern appeared to be in control heading into half time courtesy of a first-half opener from Serge Gnabry, but Thomas Tuchel's side fell apart after the interval as goals in the final half-hour from Konrad Laimer – who will join Bayern on a free this summer – Christopher Nkunku and Dominik Szoboszlai condemned the hosts to their fifth league defeat of the season.
Tuchel has failed to make the desired impact in the Bayern hotseat since replacing Julian Nagelsmann in March, having won just five of his 11 competitive matches in charge of the Bavarian giants; Bayern have suffered more defeats in this period under Tuchel (four) than they did in their previous 37 matches under Nagelsmann (three).
Bayern head into Saturday's crucial contest having dropped more points from winning positions than any other Bundesliga team in the second half of the season (13). The 32-time top-flight champions can ill-afford to crumble under pressure against a Koln side who have picked up the most points from losing positions (16) so far this term.
Bayern were forced to share the spoils in a 1-1 home draw with Koln in January, with Joshua Kimmich netting a 90th-minute equaliser, although they did secure a comprehensive 4-0 victory in their last visit to RheinEnergieStadion 12 months earlier.
Team News
© Reuters
Koln forward Tigges requires shoulder surgery and is therefore ruled out of Saturday's game, while Florian Dietz (cruciate ligament) and Mark Uth (pelvic) are also sidelined due to injury.
Defender Jonas Hector is set to play his 228th and final Bundesliga match for Koln after announcing his decision to retire at the end of the season; the 32-year-old is still searching for his first-ever win over Bayern having failed to come out on top in his previous 11 meetings (drawing two and losing nine).
Versatile midfielder Florian Kainz is the first Koln player since data collection began in 2004-05 to register 10 assists in a Bundesliga season, and the 30-year-old could be handed a start in an advanced role in behind Davie Selke, who is set to replace the injured Tigges up front.
As for Bayern Munich, Manuel Neuer (broken leg), Alphonso Davies (thigh) and Lucas Hernandez (knee) are all ruled out through injury, while Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting is doubtful with a knee problem.
Manchester City loanee Joao Cancelo may play his final game for the Bavarians and could line up in the back four along with Noussair Mazraoui, Benjamin Pavard and Matthijs de Ligt.
The potential absence of Choupo-Moting will likely see Gnabry, who has scored in each of his last four matches, lead the line with support provided in attack by Kingsley Coman, Thomas Muller, Jamal Musiala and Leroy Sane.
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Schwabe; Schmitz, Hubers, Chabot, Hector; Skhiri, Martel; Ljubicic, Kainz, Maina; Selke
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Mazraoui, Pavard, De Ligt, Cancelo; Kimmich; Coman, Muller, Musiala, Sane; Gnabry
We say: FC Koln 1-2 Bayern Munich
While Koln are merely playing for pride, the onus in on Bayern to give all they have got to secure maximum points and hope that Dortmund slip up in their final match to have any chance of clinching an 11th successive title.
Bayern are sure to throw everything at Koln and will be confident of ending the campaign with a ninth consecutive victory at RheinEnergieStadion, but that might not be enough to finish the day at the Bundesliga summit.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
