Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 44.99%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Sport Recife had a probability of 27.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.87%) and 2-1 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.92%), while for a Sport Recife win it was 0-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fortaleza in this match.