Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 61.1%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 15.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.85%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.84%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (6.34%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.